Melting glaciers, growing lakes and the threat of outburst floods

How Pakistan, with the Green Climate Fund, is reducing risk and building climate resilience in the mountains of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In March, the mercury began to soar in Pakistan. Daytime average maximum temperatures hovered 5°C and 8°C above normal in large parts of the country.

For two months, the mercury soared, killing at least 90 people and causing widespread power failures, fires, and crop losses. On May 1, the city of Nawabshah recorded 49.5 degrees Celsius (120.2°F) – the hottest temperature recorded on Earth so far in 2022. High in the mountains, the heat accelerated ice melt, causing glacial lake at Shisper Glacier in Hassanabad, Hunza to burst.

Scientists linked the heatwave to the climate crisis. One study found that climate change made the heatwave "30 times more likely". 

Heatwave triggered Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Gilgit Baltistan destroying agricultural land, the Hassan Abad bridge & sweeping houses along. Pakistan meteorological department forecasts more GLOF events in the norther areas particularly in Chitral. #ClimateChange pic.twitter.com/O56NHKCMI7

— Iftikhar Firdous (@IftikharFirdous) May 7, 2022

The heatwave was not the only climate-related disaster to strike. Following the searing heatwave, Pakistan experienced the second-driest April in six decades. In July, deadly monsoon floods took more than 530 lives, while leaving roads, bridges, households, and schools in ruins.

Due to rising temperatures, glaciers in Pakistan’s northern Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa regions are melting rapidly, adding to the already formed 33 ice-dammed vulnerable lakes, creating more than 3,000 lakes. Around 33 are considered at risk of bursting, putting some 7.1 million people at risk of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF). These sudden events can unleash millions of cubic meters of water and debris, leading to the loss of lives, property, livestock, and livelihoods of remote mountain communities.

Accelarating climate change impacts

As the global temperature rises, Pakistan faces increasing risk from a range of disasters, including heatwaves, droughts, floods, and melting glaciers. Dependent on the land for their livelihoods, the rural poor shoulder the brunt of the impacts as well as those from shifting and more unpredictable rainfall. 

The government recognizes the challenges – adaptation, preparedness, and resilience-building are top national priorities and integral to the country’s climate action goals and development vision. On the street, people are also concerned. According to the People’s Climate Vote conducted by UNDP, 6 in 10 people in Pakistan see climate change as a global emergency.

Reducing risk, building resilience

Building on the GLOF-I project funded by Adaptation Fund, the ‘Scaling-Up of Glacial Lake Outburst Flood Risk Reduction in Northern Pakistan Project’ (GLOF-II) was launched in 2017 with funding from the Green Climate Fund and in partnership with the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). “GLOF-II” is a 6.5-year project, focused on reducing the risks associated with glacial lake outburst floods in the regions of Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. 

Spanning a range of interventions – including scaled-up early warning systems, protective infrastructure, repair/rehabilitation of irrigation channels, slope stabilization through bio-engineering structures, and institutional support – and working with a range of partners and stakeholders– from policymakers at federal and provincial government to communities and nature herself – the project will benefit almost 700,000 people directly and around 29 million people indirectly, more than half of them women.

The end goal is a meaningful paradigm shift that will underpin long-term resilience for the region.  

Bottom-up: empowering communities

One of the keys to reducing disaster risk is working with those on the front lines. The project is doing just this, working to empower communities through locally-led preparedness and response, through establishment of Community Based Disaster Risk Management Committees for better development planning, and improved land and water management.

Despite some delays due to COVID-19, progress has been made with formation of community based Hazard Watch Groups established in 24 valleys to provide a first line of defence in the wake of disaster and to keep community abreast of potential threats. Local residents in each project valley have been trained in disaster risk reduction, emergency response and have taken part in mock drills, enabling them to respond quickly and effectively when trouble strikes. 

 The distribution of emergency response equipment, including generators, walkie talkies, range finders, and small solar panels, is helping support communities in the event of disaster.  

Meanwhile, communities have also been enthusiastically taking part in hands-on initiatives such as glacier cleaning campaigns, awareness and capacity-building sessions, and tree planting.

Top-down: improving policy-and decision-making

At the same time, the project focuses on supporting authorities with the knowledge and skills to integrate climate change risk and disaster management into development planning. To date, 51 trainings have been conducted across Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, benefitting more than 1,600 participants, while more than 2,000 people have taken part in 71 community mobilization sessions. More than 2,000 community members have also taken part in 43 mock-drills.

At the local level, the project has strengthened existing Community Based Disaster Risk Management (CBDRM) committees with training in GLOF risk and project interventions. At district level, 150 key officials from disaster management authorities have received training on disaster risk management, including the identification of roles and responsibilities in relation to climate change adaptation and GLOF risk reduction. As a result, they can better identify climate-related hazards and develop and implement disaster coping strategies in the medium and long-term.

The project has provided support and input to the drafting of Climate Change Adaptation Action Plans for Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Strategies and action plans related to GLOF will link to the institutional and regulatory systems for climate-responsive planning and development.

A Climate Change Cell has been established at the Ministry of Climate Change, operating at national and provincial levels, and a Gender Strategy and Action Plan has also been completed.

Improved monitoring and forecasting with automatic weather stations 

Towards improved climate information and early warning, the project is installing 50 automatic weather stations in 24 valleys, as well as more than 400 water depth gauges, river discharge sensors, rain gauges, warning posts, and an alarm system.

The data, which will be available in real time to anyone through the Meteorological Department’s website, will help safeguard communities from potential glacial floods. It will also support Pakistan’s Meteorological Department to better monitor, plan, and coordinate the response to climate-related disasters, particularly GLOFs. 

Prior to the GLOF-II project, only two districts in Gilgit-Baltistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa had GLOF early warning systems and flood protection structures (benefiting around 14,000 people). Vulnerable households were not able to receive and respond to GLOF early warning messages. Real time data gathered from the new automatic weather stations will be key to improving early warning messages to communities.

In March-April 2021, an Automated Weather Station was installed at Shisper Glacier in Hunza which helped the district administration in the timely evacuation of households during the GLOF events in April 2021 and May 2022.

Better understanding the overall picture of risk

To ensure the authorities have a clearer picture of risk, the project is advancing a range of initiatives including hazard vulnerability/risk assessments, GIS mapping of vulnerable valleys, socio-economic and ‘KAP’ surveys, baseline surveys, and needs and capacity assessments.

Pakistan’s Meteorological Department is now updating the existing glacier inventory. In addition, the Ministry of Climate Change and Pakistan’s Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) have forged a Memorandum of Understanding to use satellite imagery to monitor glacial lake melting, threat of outburst floods, and the impacts of climate change on forest and green cover across the country.

Leaning on nature for the solutions

To mitigate risks associated with landslides, erosion, and other impacts of GLOFs, the project is increasing vegetative cover in vulnerable valleys. So far, 300 hectares have been planted with indigenous species or undergone compact plantation, pasture improvement, or slope stabilization – not just creating a natural buffer against flooding and reducing risks of landslides, debris slides, and avalanches, but also restoring the natural biodiversity. 

It is a virtuous circle: healthier ecosystems provide for higher crop yields, strengthened agricultural practices, and reduced crop losses, which in turn contribute to enhanced food security and resilient livelihoods and ecosystems, which in turn place less pressure on ecosystems.

Construction has begun on dozens of small-scale protective infrastructure and irrigation schemes. 

Meanwhile, the project is promoting indigenous practices for sustainable water supply, such as artificially built ice stupas, avalanche harvesting, and glacier grafting.

Pari villagers have adopted an indigenous adaptation technique in the form of ice stupas. In early spring and summer, the melt from the stupas results in increased water supply from March to June, when water is scarce but required for agriculture. It is a process that involves extensive hard labour but which sees a high return for the economic well-being of local communities.

Looking ahead

With the procurement of the Early Warning System, including automatic weather stations, rain gauges, water discharge gauges, water depth sensors, snow depth sensors, warning posts, and data transmission equipment, the project is now embarking on a major rollout in 24 valleys. Once the early warning system is installed, 95 percent of households will be able to receive early warnings and take timely action. 

Taken together, the elements of the project present a holistic model of climate-resilient development – one enabling government and communities themselves to better manage the risks from GLOF and other climate change impacts, including embedding GLOF risk reduction as an integral part of policymaking. 

Saving lives. Protecting livelihoods.