Análisis estadístico de simulaciones numéricas de dispersión y caída de ceniza del volcán Cayambe para la determinación de afectación en el sector florícola, Cantón Cayambe, Ecuador

This paper performs a statistical analysis of numerical simulations of dispersion and ash fall from the Cayambe volcano. The Cayambe volcanic complex represents a hazard to the 85 795 inhabitants in their surroundings who base their economy on floriculture. To our best knowledge, no automated estimates have been made of the economic impact that an eventual eruption of the Cayambe volcano in the area would cause. The delineation of areas affected by ashfall were obtained through a statistical analysis of numerical simulations of eruptive scenarios. In this study, 39 006 buildings were digitalized from aerial photography to identify and quantify the infrastructure that could be affected by this phenomenon’s occurrence.

The processing and analysis of the census data allowed characterizing the study area and describing the impact that an event of this type would have on the local population. Thus, ash thicknesses of 15 mm to 45 mm covering 97.83% of the surface with estimated losses of up to USD 140 million in plants and greenhouses. The surface of the canton would be affected by ashfall. This effect would affect more than 100 villages, 21 844 homes and 7 611 jobs in floriculture. In the medium and long term, the economies of at least 3 500 families would be affected by unemployment because of the economic losses that the floriculture industry would suffer.