Regional workshop on integration of seasonal forecasts and hydrological information for water related sectors in the Western Coast of South America (WCSA)

The Third World Climate Conference, organized by WMO, produced as one of its main outcomes key recommendations for the implementation of the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS). One of the recommendations calls for action to tailor suitable products for strategic development sectors and foster synergies among different communities to achieve this goal. An interdisciplinary approach is now a strong requirement and is unavoidable in the endeavor to reach end users and provide them with weather, climate and water information with which to make better decisions. The Western Coast of South America Region has developed, through the NMHSs from Venezuela, Colombia, Ecuador, Peru, Bolivia and Chile under the coordination of CIIFEN, a strong Institutional operational network which is providing regular, tailored climate services for the agricultural and risk management sectors of the region. They are also closely linked with the Regional Seasonal Forecast system, implemented and consolidated through the WCSA Climate Outlook Forum, supported by WMO and coordinated by CIIFEN.

During the 1990’s, seasonal prediction matured to achieve some notable success, in particular reaching a high level of quality in areas influenced by the status of the tropical Pacific, based on predictions of SST and ENSO variability. Also, a move from statistically based forecasting methods to dynamic modeling approaches will see significant improvements in forecast capabilities. Nevertheless, model error and forecast initialization continue to limit forecast quality, and the predictability limit has yet to be reached. In spite of these problems, seasonal forecast has been applied with relative success on scales of three months in the prediction of maximum,
minimum temperature and precipitation. These predictions are being used to compile maps of agro climatic risk. Skillful seasonal hydrologic predictions will greatly assist water resource management, preparation for floods, drought and its impacts, energy planning, and many other related sectors.

The institutional platform existing in the WCSA region offers a very special opportunity to start a process toward the integration of this operational system at the regional and national levels with other strategic components such as hydrological forecasting and integrated water resources management.

WCSA countries’ economies are strongly dependant of sectors such as agriculture, energy and water resources. In addition, the occurrence of severe extreme events have direct consequences on water access, distribution and use, producing social conflicts and economic losses which lead to increase poverty, sanitation problems, malnutrition and food insecurity. Various service providers in the water sector will benefit if, on the basis of the Climate Outlooks being regularly generated in the region, NHSs could develop Hydrological Outlooks in their respective jurisdictions and cooperate with each other in developing the hydrological outlooks in transboundary rivers.

This kind of effort demands mutual knowledge sharing amongst the involved disciplinary communities. This workshop is aimed to initiate the process in this region and identify the key partners, the needs to be addressed, the opportunities and actions to be undertaken in order to accomplish the implementation of this new integrated climate and water service as a regional contribution to the GFCS.

Methodology:
The workshop will be divided in 4 sessions. Each session will include key note presentations, regional and national presentations and working group discussions.

The proposed sessions will be the following:
I. Needs for hydrological outlooks for users from the irrigation, energy and supply and sanitation sectors at the National and Regional level.
II. Current capabilities for implementing climate and hydrological services at the Global, Regional and National levels.
III. Opportunities to implement hydrological outlooks for irrigation, energy supply and sanitation sectors.
IV. Building a Regional Action Plan to provide hydrological outlooks on an operational basis in WCSA.

Objectives:
The proposed workshop is oriented toward the discussion of the following issues:
1) To assess the current national capacities, ongoing activities, strengths, weaknesses and major needs of the water sector related to hydrological data, products and services, especially hydrological prediction.
2) To learn about, regional or extra-regional experiences with hydrological products and services applied to the irrigation, energy and sanitation sectors.
3) To foster the interaction between the hydrologic and climatic communities in the region by identifying the points of common interest and challenges.
4) To propose a regional action plan aimed at the implementation of hydrological outlooks based on climate outlooks in the region, as a contribution from the region to the Global Framework of Climate Services.