A 2023 hurricane caught Mexico off guard: we must work together to prepare better
Hurricane Otis yields lessons for researchers and policymakers on how to reduce risks in the face of inequality.
When Hurricane Otis hit Acapulco on the Pacific coast of Mexico on 25 October 2023, it had developed much more quickly and taken a different course than predicted. It damaged an area covering nearly 700 hectares, home to around 560,000 people (see go.nature.com/499dwgy). A preliminary assessment suggests that reconstruction could cost between US$14 billion and $21 billion (see go.nature.com/3pkbvav).
[...]
Why did state-of-the-art models fail to forecast that Otis would reach the maximum intensity (a category 5 hurricane), rather than remain a tropical storm? Thorough analyses are required, but it seems to have stemmed partly from its rapid development in the East Pacific region, where data-collection points are sparse. The limited availability of ocean buoys, land observations, radars and hurricane hunters along the west coast of Mexico places heavy reliance on satellite imagery for forecasting, which, along with the aggravating nature of climate impacts, can lead to less-accurate forecasts.
[...]
The effects of Hurricane Otis also underscore the need to improve early-warning systems — which is itself contingent on accurate forecasts. Because disaster preparation becomes difficult once winds reach tropical storm force (sustained surface winds of 63–117 kilometres per hour), alerts should be issued between 36 and 48 hours before the predicted impact. This is in line with the United Nations’ Early Warnings for All initiative, which aims to ensure everyone is protected from natural hazards by 2027.
[...]
In making landfall in and around Acapulco, Otis hit an area known for its long-standing stark inequalities and vulnerabilities, and its lack of inclusive mechanisms for planning, coordinating and implementing risk strategies. Farther inland, the government of Mexico City has announced the development of ‘community brigades’ to address these issues. Groups of trained volunteers help to lead disaster-risk prevention and responses in their communities, although the project is still in the developmental phase.
[...]