Applying resilience framework to create a drought-resistant community

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The Philippines Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) defines drought as "three consecutive months of way below normal rainfall (60-percent reduction from average) or five consecutive months of below-normal rainfall condition (21- to 60-percent reduction from average)." Dry spell means "three consecutive months of below-normal rainfall or two months of consecutive way below normal rainfall" while dry condition means "having two consecutive months of below-normal rainfall."

According to Pagasa, the average annual mean temperature in the country has increased by 0.65 C since 1951, rising at an average rate of 0.12 C per decade. It is projected to increase from 1.7 to 3.0 C by 2050. Higher temperatures are expected for all regions of the country by 2050, the rates doubling compared to 2020 levels. Warming will be worse in Mindanao.

This causes drastic changes in weather patterns, not only in an increase in frequency, intensity and duration of floods, but also in an increase in frequency and intensity of droughts in the face of the changing climate. With no doubt, the country has been constantly on the top of the rankings that suffered most from global warming. The latest Global Climate Risk Index has ranked the Philippines fourth among countries most affected by weather-related events from 2000 to 2019.

One of the observed impacts of climate change in the Philippines is the change in annual mean rainfall. While the average annual rainfall over most parts of Luzon and the Visayas is expected to increase by 2050, Mindanao will experience a general reduction in regional annual average rainfall.

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