“Category hell” the new norm for storms in the Caribbean?

By Christophe Illemassene

Nassau, the Bahamas: By calling the impact of Hurricane Dorian, “a generational disaster,” the Prime Minister of the Bahamas, Hubert Minnis, grasped the magnitude and gravity of the devastation that the storm left in its wake. Torrential rains, deadly winds and 22 feet surge have now given way to clear skies and calm seas. But the hurricane was the worst ever to make landfall on the Caribbean archipelago of 700 islands.

This is the new normal. Look closely and it becomes apparent that recently quite a few new storms have broken records. In 2015, Hurricane Joaquin, which devastated parts of the southern islands of the Bahamas, was the strongest Atlantic hurricane of non-tropical origin recorded in the satellite era. The following year, Hurricane Matthew battered Haiti and again parts of the Bahamas, becoming the first hurricane to sustain itself as a Category 4 for five days. In 2017, the hyperactive tropical cyclone season was the costliest on record. Hurricanes Irma and Maria tore through Dominica, Barbuda, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and parts of Cuba in an unforgiving quick succession. Maria had the highest average rainfall of the 129 storms to have struck Puerto Rico in the past 60 years. Irma was the strongest storm ever on record in the Atlantic, outside of the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane Dorian hovered over the Abaco and Grand Bahama islands for an unprecedented two days. 

Unscalable storms?

As Dorian tore through the Bahamas, it seemed as if the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, which rates hurricanes from 1 to 5 based on their sustained wind speed, had fallen short. Preston Cooper Sr, a resident of Grand Bahama who witnessed many a storm in his life and lost everything to Dorian, was categorical, “This last hurricane was unscalable. A Category 5 plus.” “Maybe even a Category 7,” said Captain Steven Russell, from the National Emergency Management Agency (NEMA). We are off the charts, it seems. The growing sense of vulnerability and powerlessness of people living on islands threatened by these ever more frequent and intense monstrous storms is palpable. For UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who visited the ravaged town of Marsh Harbour on Abaco Island on 14 September, Hurricane Dorian was a “Category Hell” – one powered by climate change.

The impact of human-made global warming is no longer a distant threat. Climate change is happening, and it is happening now. Speaking in Nassau outside the largest shelter for people displaced by Hurricane Dorian, Mr. Guterres stressed the urgency to act. “We have a window of 11 years to avoid irreversible climate change damage,” he said, citing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It says we must reduce emissions by 45 per cent by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2050. We cannot think of actions in the long term anymore. Climate actions are required now. 

Meanwhile, countries such as the Bahamas are left with the challenging task of recovery and reconstruction after experiencing catastrophic devastation. Judging by the financial cost of damage caused by recent large-scale hurricanes in the Caribbean, the Bahamas are likely to face billions of dollars of damage. The Secretary-General stated that the country “cannot be expected to foot this bill alone”. In the case of external shocks, Mr. Guterres advocates for swapping debt for investment in resilience and for concessional financing to be made available to middle-income countries.

As a result of these new large-scale climate-related disasters, the landscape of disaster preparedness and relief emergency operation planning is fast changing. Various standards and tools require urgent adaptation. For instance, Bahamas building codes, among the most stringent in the Caribbean and devised to withstand winds of Category 5 hurricanes of up to 150 miles per hour, are no longer enough: Dorian unleashed gusts well over 220 miles per hour, as did Hurricane Irma two years ago. Once the dust settles and Bahamians rebuild their lives, local, regional and international agencies will have to come together to devise innovative strategies to face the next record-breaking storm.

The endless mounds of debris, rows of ruined homes and uprooted trees of Marsh Harbour are a warning that “nature is angry,” reminded the Secretary-General. “We must respect nature, adopt policies to stop global warming and defeat climate change.”