Early-warning actions are plagued by structural gaps. We call for a determined effort from the global scientific community to identify some of them — and to help bridge them. National and local governments, international organizations, researchers, the private sector, operational staff, community workers and the public all have an essential part to play in the efficient running of early-warning systems. We contend that all actors need to take note of each others’ contributions and be intentional about forming a collective effort. Better resources will follow, as well as improved hazard coverage and warnings that are more efficient and more inclusive.
A framework for risk reduction
Natural hazards cannot be forecast, warned about or responded to in isolation. This is because they depend on hydrological, geological and atmospheric conditions and are often interrelated: an earthquake can trigger a tsunami; heavy rains can lead to landslides or floods. The UN has had a key role in developing early-warning systems, both through focused efforts, such as in meteorology (through the World Meteorological Organization; WMO), and through broader initiatives, such as a multi-hazard management plan called the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030 (see ‘Seven steps to safety’).
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Despite much progress, the UN and its member states are not on track to meet the 2030 goals of the Sendai framework. Notably, significant gaps exist in multi-hazard early-warning systems (target G of the framework3). Supporting actions must accelerate. Investments need scaling up, with a focus on low-income countries, multi-sector cooperation, risk information and data collection and management. In parallel, early warnings should take into account exposure, vulnerability and potential impacts using an accountable, people-centric approach.
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Furthermore, some areas that need the most attention in early-warning systems are those where the UN system has specific structural weaknesses, such as in fragile and conflict-affected states. When resources are limited, governance is poor or governments are not trusted, a ‘top-down’ approach is not effective, and the role of civil-society and other actors becomes even more crucial, even when they are facing their own challenges.
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