Drought in the land of plenty: The impacts of climate change on Iraqi security

Historically known as the land of the two rivers-the Tigris and the Euphrates, modern-day Iraq was the cradle of human civilization. The fertile soils of its rivers were where early humans first started farming. Global warming, however, has turned Iraq into one of the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Rising temperatures, decreasing rainfall, soil degradation, and severe droughts are transforming Iraq's semi-arid environment into a desert. As climate change intensifies, Iraq's water resources, agriculture, public health, and socio-economic stability will be threatened.

The Persian Gulf, where Iraq is located, is an arid environment with extreme heat. Iraq's problems are not unique in the region-Iraq's wealthier neighbors live in even harsher desert environments. However, they have built the capacity and resources necessary to desalinate up to 90% of their potable water. Gulf countries have a stable electric system that provides adequate air conditioning for their people. The Persian Gulf monarchies also import most of their food and invest in high-tech hydroponics systems to increase domestic production. By comparison, Iraq does not yet have the infrastructure or resources to manage the warming environment as its neighbors do.

Water scarcity

Over the past 40 years, output from the Tigris and Euphrates-which provide up to 98% of Iraq's surface water, has decreased by 30-40%. This decline is driven by reduced rainfall, increased evaporation induced by warming temperatures, and upstream damming by neighboring countries. Additionally, falling aquifer levels and low river flows have exacerbated saltwater intrusion, reducing freshwater access by increasing salinity and damaging agricultural lands. In 2021, Iraq experienced its second driest season in four decades, leading to water shortages nationwide, particularly in southern regions like Basra. According to the World Bank, if the current trends persist, Iraq will face a severe water deficit of up to 10 billion cubic meters by 2035-more than five times the annual water consumption of the New York Metropolitan Area. Water shortages have affected access to drinking water, sanitation, and irrigation.

Food security

Agriculture is a crucial sector of Iraq's economy-it is the second largest contributor to Iraq's GDP after hydrocarbons. In 2021, due to drought conditions, Iraq's wheat and barley farmers reported nearly 37% and 30% drops in respective crop yields. In 2022, total agricultural productivity has decreased by up to 50%, forcing farmers to abandon their farms and migrate to urban centers or abroad. The Iraqi government has begun implementing climate-smart agriculture initiatives to safeguard its agriculture. Its initiatives focus on sustainable water use, drought-resistant crops, and improved irrigation systems.

Desertification

Prolonged droughts and poor soil management have led to significant soil degradation, affecting over 39% of Iraq's land with loss of soil health and desertification. Iraq's marshlands, once UNESCO heritage sites, have changed considerably-more than 70% of the total marshland area has become a desert, and 20% have been converted to agricultural fields. Only 10% of the marshlands remain.

Heat stress

Climate change also causes direct health risks to the Iraqi people due to extreme heat and declining air quality. In recent years, Iraq has recorded temperatures exceeding 120°F, with the southern city of Basra experiencing one of the highest temperatures ever recorded globally at nearly 130°F in 2016. Extreme heatwaves and a corresponding rise in heat-related illnesses have been documented, with children and the elderly the most vulnerable.

Respiratory health

Although dust storms are common in arid environments, Iraq now experiences up to 270 storms annually, with heat and droughts identified as exacerbating factors. This has led to a surge in respiratory illnesses like asthma and pneumonia that public health infrastructure is struggling to address. A recent report by the World Health Organization highlighted respiratory diseases linked to climate-related factors as a key health risk in Iraq. The report stressed the need for improved air quality management and healthcare adaptation strategies.

Waterborne diseases

Displaced populations and competition over increasingly limited water resources have overwhelmed Iraq's sanitation infrastructure. The inability of the infrastructure to keep up with the spikes in demand has increased the risk of exposure to waterborne diseases. Contamination creates breeding grounds for diarrheal diseases, which cause up to 70% of infant deaths. Cholera has also made a resurgence, with major outbreaks reported in 2015, 2017, and 2022.

Displacement

Climate change has intensified displacement and conflict within Iraq. The country's struggles with water scarcity and the decline in agricultural production fuel the displacement of people. In southern Iraq, where the impacts of climate change are most severe, disputes over water and land rights often escalate into violence. This mix of environmental pressures, economic hardships, and violence forces Iraqis to relocate to informal settlements. An estimated 1.2 million Iraqis live in informal settlements, where displaced communities often lack access to basic services. This increases tensions in urban centers grappling with strained water supply, sanitation services, and electricity.

Violence

As competition over resources grows, so does the likelihood of localized conflict. The downstream impact of this violence can compound instability. This cycle of conflict is self-reinforcing: as more people are forced to relocate, the strain on limited resources increases, leading to further disputes, which cause more people to be displaced. Weakened governance and poor management of natural resources amplify these challenges, making it difficult to sustain order in affected areas.

Migration

Finally, the impacts of climate change in Iraq are not confined to its borders. Climate change is linked to changes in migration patterns that affect the rest of the world. As environmental degradation and resource scarcity worsen, more displaced Iraqis are turning to immigration as conditions in the informal settlements within Iraq deteriorate. The developed world, mainly Europe, has seen applications from Iraqis driven by climate-related conflict, quality of life, and livelihood concerns increase significantly since 2021.

A perilous future

Iraq has initiated several measures to combat climate change. For example, the government has adopted a National Adaptation Plan focused on sustainable water management, improved irrigation systems, and renewable energy investments like solar and wind power. At the local level, Iraq promotes community-based strategies, such as rainwater harvesting and the development of drought-resistant crops. Programs to restore marshlands and protect natural ecosystems are also underway, as the conservation of wetland ecosystems mitigates some of the harm of climate change.

The rise of climate-induced migration highlights the need for international collaboration to address the root causes of climate change and displacement. International support, particularly from the United Nations and NGOs, is critical in providing financial and technical assistance for adaptation projects that could mitigate the worst effects of climate change and reduce migration. Developed countries will have to rethink their foreign aid strategies, border security measures, and asylum systems to prepare for the increase in climate refugees from the worst affected regions.

Climate change poses serious threats to Iraq's environment, agriculture, public health, and socio-economic stability. As Iraq aims to build resilience against these threats, urgent action is needed to secure water resources, protect vulnerable populations, and strengthen the resilience of the agricultural sector. Iraq is an early warning of the impacts of climate change globally. However, if managed appropriately, Iraq could also be a laboratory for climate change solutions.