Early warning systems at the center of climate action: Lessons from Latin America and the Caribbean towards COP28

Latin America and the Caribbean is the second most disaster-prone region in the globe, due to natural events. Between the years 2000 and 2022, 1,534 disasters impacted more than 190 million individuals (OCHA, UNDRR, 2023). The mitigation of susceptibility and reliance on hydrometeorological phenomena stands as a paramount dilemma that nations in Latin America and the Caribbean collectively confront. The potential ramifications of climate change, which has been inextricably linked to human activity since the 18th century, could lead to unprecedented shifts in catastrophe risk. The eventual effects on the general living conditions of millions of individuals will not only fluctuate, but also the threats themselves. Based on established patterns, the annual economic losses attributed to climate change in the region are projected to amount to $100 billion by 2050 (IAI, 2022). The region’s countries are confronted with an expanding financial burden, compromised macroeconomic stability, trade balance, and fiscal robustness, as damages accompany an escalation in fatalities caused by disasters. This undermines the ability of governments and markets to establish circumstances that ensure a satisfactory standard of living for the majority, with a particular focus on the most disadvantaged segments of the population.

Within this particular context, disaster risk management (DRM) presents an all-encompassing normative and technical structure that serves to enhance the resilience of productive systems, public services, and communities. This is especially true in situations where development planning is complicated by multi-systemic transformations and uncertainty. It is feasible to mitigate fatalities and restore livelihoods by improving the safety conditions of communities that are particularly susceptible and exposed. DRM additionally enhances the resilience of public, social, and economic services in the face of hydrometeorological phenomena that undermine their functionality amidst threats that are altering their recurrence and intensity patterns. The Sharm el-Sheikh Adaptation Program and the COP27 special emphasis on increasing funding for potential damage and loss reduction are instances that illustrate the critical nature of confronting disaster risk drivers in order to reduce impacts in a sustainable manner over an extended period of time.

Considerable endeavors have been undertaken by the international community to harmonize and supplement its principal sectoral agreements. As a result, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) has synchronized its disaster risk management (DRM) endeavors with the priorities and accords outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the trajectory established by the Paris Agreement. The IDB endeavors to aid in the realization of the seven global objectives outlined in the Sendai Framework by means of its financial operations and technical assistance. It does so by providing support to initiatives within its four priority areas of action and by addressing critical facets of disaster risk in the region. Furthermore, as an operational principle, cross-sectoral collaboration is embraced by the Bank, enabling it to establish connections with other domains of development, including climate action and the 2030 Agenda.

The international community places significant emphasis on the improvement of territorial safety conditions through the enhancement of national multi-hazard early warning networks. Early warning systems are one of the seven global objectives of the Sendai Framework for Action, which emphasizes early warning as a process that significantly reduces the number of tragic casualties in the event of a disaster. According to the UNDRR/WMO (2022), countries with well-performing multi-hazard early warning systems experienced an eightfold reduction in disaster-related fatalities when compared to countries with inadequate performance. Empirical evidence abounds in the scientific literature attesting to the following benefits of early warning systems: (i) they aid in the immediate restoration of socioeconomic activities and mitigate the impact of disasters on a greater number of individuals; and (ii) they deliver accurate and universal information, including that which is crucial for the most vulnerable populations, thereby furnishing adequate protection during emergencies.

Significant advancements have been achieved in this regard by nations in the region, including Ecuador, Peru, and Trinidad and Tobago, with the financial assistance of the IDB. Since 2006, the IDB has provided technical assistance and investment operations to Ecuador in order to strengthen and expand its early warning systems. These efforts have resulted in an expansion of Ecuador’s warning networks’ coverage and have contributed to the consolidation of a national approach to multi-hazard early warning. Peru has made substantial investments in the expansion of its National Early Warning Network. Notably, efforts have been made to design and develop early warning systems for glacier-related risks, which pose a latent threat to thousands of Peruvians residing in the Cordillera Blanca. With the assistance of the IDB in terms of technology, the government of Trinidad and Tobago is formulating an investment strategy and road map to enhance the functionality of its National Multi-Hazard Early Warning System.

By conducting operations such as those previously mentioned, the IDB has amassed a substantial collection of knowledge and optimal approaches regarding the development and execution of multi-hazard early warning systems. A synopsis of several of these insights gained appears below:

• Community involvement is crucial for the effectiveness of these investments in early warning system development across multiple facets. The notion of “people-centered early warning systems,” which has been a United Nations priority for more than fifteen years, continues to be more pertinent than ever. To secure community engagement in exercises and associated endeavors, including risk comprehension and evacuation route identification, it is imperative that the early warning system be a citizen-centric instrument. Moreover, there is a growing utilization of behavioral science techniques, specifically nudges, to enhance the efficiency with which communities obtain and react to early warning information.
• It is imperative to sustain the enhancement of current early warning systems through the application of technological advancements. An experience worthy of mention pertains to Ecuador, where cameras were integrated with sirens to serve multiple functions. An instance of this methodology was also utilized in the development of a community-driven early warning initiative for “huaicos” (debris flow) in Chosica, Peru. This initiative integrated camera systems to track the condition of mitigation geomesh and initiate notifications. Camera-equipped sirens can be utilized during periods of tranquility or in the absence of a catastrophe to deter criminal activity and monitor traffic, among other purposes.
• Critical to early warning system governance continues to be oversight. Establishing and maintaining a functional early warning system for multiple hazards at the national or regional level necessitates the support of reputable institutions, guidelines, and inter-institutional accords in collaboration with scientific-technical organizations that monitor the threat and local governments. These entities serve as a vital conduit between national authorities and the communities they serve. Various nations in the region are progressing at distinct phases in the establishment of these governance frameworks with the aim of integrating their domestic multi-hazard early warning systems. The IDB encourages international exchanges of experiences.
• The design of early warning systems must take into account various spatial dimensions. National multi-hazard early warning networks entail, initially, the establishment of early warning systems at the national or regional level, encompassing extensive territories. These systems are currently enhanced with the aid of remote sensing technologies and mass alert dissemination. In the case of active landslides, for instance, they mandate the establishment of community-based and local early warning systems in regions that have been identified as having exceptionally high levels of risk (both in terms of exposure and vulnerability) due to specific and highly localized hazards.
• Emphasizing tangible prospects to advance cross-cutting elements in the development of early warning systems, such as approaches that consider gender and inclusion, is of utmost significance. In addition to ensuring that alerts reach the most vulnerable population segments, such as women and individuals with disabilities, active inclusion of these demographics in early warning system decision-making instances and processes is of the utmost importance. By incorporating these elements with particular care into the design of its new investment operation with the IDB, Ecuador has established a pertinent example.

The accumulation of experience indicates that disaster risk management measures possess considerable catalytic potential in enhancing climate change adaptation. Countries must prioritize public investment in the development and enhancement of multi-hazard early warning systems as a means to protect the lives and livelihoods of tens of thousands of individuals who will be impacted.