Explained: why India's early warning systems for floods and cyclones fall short
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The Indian government says it has modern, sophisticated early warning systems for floods and cyclones. But the lack of impact-based forecasts that identify risks, poor dissemination of information to people, lack of scientific data on the effectiveness of warning systems and lack of localised action plans to follow warnings, are some issues that plague India's Early Warning Systems (EWS).
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Flood forecasting comprises level forecasting and inflow forecasting. Level forecasts help the disaster management agencies in deciding mitigating measures like evacuation, shifting people and their movable property to safer locations. Inflow forecasting is used by various dam authorities to optimise the operation of reservoirs and ensure safe passage of floodwaters downstream. It also helps ensure adequate storage in the reservoirs for meeting the demand of water during the non-monsoon period.
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"India has made substantial progress in installing early warning systems, but end-to-end connectivity needs to be improved where information reaches the last mile," said Abinash Mohanty, programme lead at the Delhi-based think-tank Council on Energy, Environment and Water (CEEW), who is currently researching India's EWS.
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Despite all the technological advances, expenditure on EWS and the government's claims that deaths due to cyclonic storms have decreased, they in fact increased between 2010 and 2021, according to data from Rajya Sabha.
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