High risk of powerful quake in northeastern Japan within 30 years: Panel

While maintaining there is almost zero percent of another magnitude 9 earthquake occurring in the same area on the trench as the one that hit eastern Japan in March 2011, the Earthquake Research Committee revised upward the probabilities of major quakes in other parts from the previous estimate compiled in November 2011.

In its latest long-term estimate, the panel said there is a 50 percent chance of a quake of magnitude 7 to 7.5 occurring off Fukushima Prefecture, up from the previous 10 percent, and 20 percent of a magnitude 7.9 quake occurring off Miyagi Prefecture, up from almost zero percent.

"Just because there was a major earthquake (in recent years), we do not want people to assume that there will not be another major earthquake occurring for a while," said the committee chairman Naoshi Hirata. The panel urged people to remember the 2011 quake and prepare for the next big one.

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Its latest estimates show there is about a 50 percent chance of a magnitude 7.4 quake occurring in an area closer to the coast of Miyagi Prefecture. No probability was given in the previous estimate.

The panel left unchanged the probability of a magnitude 7.9 quake occurring in the sea east of Aomori Prefecture and north of Iwate Prefecture at 5 to 30 percent.

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