[...]
“Even though IMD has mastered the art of making accurate forecasts of where a particular cyclone would make landfall, sometimes slips happen,” said Koll.
Two main reasons can lead to inaccuracies in cyclone forecasts: when a cyclone forms near the monsoon season, which brings a lot of atmospheric complexity to India and when the cyclone’s structure is disorganised.
If a cyclone forms from the lower troposphere (the lowest layer of the atmosphere) to the upper troposphere, then it is well organised and easier to forecast. This is because winds in the upper troposphere are stronger and exert control over the cyclone’s structure, making it stable, according to Koll.
When the cyclone forms from the lower to middle troposphere, it is not well organised and therefore quite difficult to predict. This is because winds in the middle troposphere are not as strong.
To make accurate forecasts of cyclones and generate useful early warnings in a particular region, data from all the countries in that region need to be brought together and fed into the weather models. Additionally, weather data from exclusive economic zones is currently unavailable, creating another data gap.
[...]