India: Monsoon 2019: A stark reminder of climate change and its implications
By Chetan Chauhan
The monsoon of 2019 saw highest rainfall since 1994. September received highest rains in the last 102 years even as monsoon refuses to retreat. The monsoon is expected to startwithdrawing from second week of October. India has witnessed almost twice the number of the extreme rainfall events (200 mm or more in 24 hours) in 2019 as compared to the last five years. Mumbai also saw five extreme rain events this year as compared to eight in the past decade and Delhi has seen least rains in the rainy season in the past five years.
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Going by these trends, the IMD changed the definition of a “normal” monsoon by reducing average rainfall received during rainy season from 89 cms to 88 cms. The normal monsoon is defined on the basis of long period average (LPA) rainfall received between 1950 and 2010. The change is because of dip in average rainfall due to surge in drought and depressed rainfall since 2000; 13 of the last 18 years have been “below normal” rains (where rainfall was less than 90% of the normal).
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A committee of experts has submitted its recommendations to the Earth Sciences ministry suggesting different formulations for new dates. Earth Sciences secretary M V Rajeevan in August 2019 said that the new dates will come into force from 2020 monsoon season, which experts say will have implications for agriculture, as advisories for farmers will have to be changed. At present, advisories on sowing and reaping of crops to farmers are based on the onset and withdrawal dates.
India as a whole received 10% excess rainfall in 2019 and nearly 1,900 people died in rain-related incidents across the country since June 1, according to the data available with home ministry’s disaster management division. Of this, 180 deaths have been reported in the past four days from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and Gujarat. Despite news of heavy rains all around, 15% of country’s geographical area received deficient rainfall, indicating the vast contrast in the Indian weather system.
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