The inequality of heat
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India already faces dire heat risks and is likely to be the most-threatened country in the world by 2030, according to an analysis of climate data by The Washington Post and the nonprofit modeling group CarbonPlan, with more than 770 million people living in highly dangerous conditions at least two weeks per year.
Because of its growing wealth and increasingly prosperous middle class, India will have the resources to protect many of its residents from the worst effects of rising temperatures, unlike many poorer nations.
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Since 1950, Kolkata’s average temperature has risen more than any megacity studied — by 4.7 degrees Fahrenheit, according to the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. It’s expected to keep soaring, along with more intense cyclones, monsoon rainfalls and rampant flooding.
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As life gets hotter, residents who are crowded into slums or unauthorized colonies — one-third of the city’s population — will be the most at risk for health problems, heat stroke and death, experts say, while wealthier neighbors who live in air-conditioned homes on leaf-shaded streets will fare better.
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While the Indian government periodically publishes death counts related to extreme heat, global health experts say that the country has significantly understated its impact. According to India’s National Crime Records Bureau, annual heat deaths over the past decade have ranged from several hundred to around 2,000.
Recent peer-reviewed studies estimate that heat causes closer to 90,000 excess deaths a year in India.
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