Mapping the overlay between climate and conflict risks: The climate conflict vulnerability index

A new tool helps to assess and map security risks arising from climate hazards: The Climate Conflict Vulnerability Index (CCVI) was developed in collaboration with various partners by researchers from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK). It was presented at the Berlin Climate and Security conference and aims to support decision-makers in identifying and managing a wide range of risks related to aspects such as food and water security, health, peace and migration.

"The index makes it possible to localize a range of climate- and conflict-related risk factors in a timely and geographically precise manner. This is the only way to understand and resolve climate and conflict risks" explains Barbora Šedová, a FutureLab leader at PIK.

By mapping the vulnerability of regions to climate- and conflict-related risks on a subnational level, potential crisis areas can be identified at an early stage. Particularly in fragile states, where climate impacts, social vulnerability and conflict are often closely linked, the CCVI offers an additional tool to enable preventive measures and avoid escalation.

The CCVI differs from similar indices due to its detailed spatial and temporal resolution and ease of use. All data, codes, and methods used are built with public data sources and are openly shared under an open-source license. The CCVI was presented by German Minister of Foreign Affairs Baerbock Annalena Baerbock during the Berlin Climate and Security Conference (BCSC) and a validated version of the index is expected in June 2025.

The CCVI is a joint research project between the Center for Crisis Early Warning at University of the Bundeswehr Munich, the FutureLab Security, Ethnic Conflicts and Migration at PIK, and the German Federal Foreign Office.