Mozambique: 'Climate change already here and getting worse'

Malaysia- The Mozambican climate has been changing for the past 45 years, according to the first detailed study on the matter, unveiled here on Monday, by the country's relief agency, the National Disasters Management Institute (INGC).

The study on "Adaptation to Climate Change in Mozambique" shows that, between 1960 and 2005, temperatures rose by an average of between 1.1 and 1.6 degrees centigrade, Mozambique's news agency (AIM) reported.

"The number of cold night and cold days has fallen, and the number of warm nights and warm days has increased, with the greatest changes occurring in the north of the country", says the study.

A further conclusion is that the rainy season is starting later than it used to. In some parts of northern Mozambique the rains begin 45 days later than was the case half a century ago.

Annual rainfall in southern Mozambique has been increasing - but this is more than cancelled out by increased consumption of water, notably for agriculture. The study warns that, even with an increased average flow of 15 per cent in the southern rivers, at the current population growth rate there will be a 64 per cent decrease in the availability of water per capita by 2050. With a larger population, consuming water at current rates, the Limpopo River, for instance, will be dry for most of the year.

In central Mozambique, the flow of the Zambezi River is predicted to decline, because of an expected reduction in rainfall in Zimbabwe and Zambia. The study notes that additional research is needed to assess the implications for the generation of electricity at the Cahora Bassa dam.

Cyclones are becoming more frequent and more intense. Between 1980 and 1993, Mozambique was hit by four cyclones, only one of which had wind speeds in excess of 100 kilometres an hour. But between 1994 and 2007, there were 11 cyclones, six of which were more devastating than any in the preceding period.

The worst was cyclone Eline in 2000, which reached wind speeds of over 180 kilometres an hour, and played a major role in the catastrophic flooding in southern Mozambique that year.

The data on sea level rise along the Mozambican coast is of poor quality, but consistent with global trends. A continuation of the current trends, the study suggests, will lead to a rise in sea level of between 10 and 20 centimetres by 2060, due largely to water expanding as it becomes warmer.

But current trends may not continue. If, as many scientists fear, there is massive melting of the polar ice caps, that could lead to catastrophic sea level rises. The study posits a scenario of "extreme increase" in which the sea level off the Mozambican coast rises by five metres by 2100. But the study's authors admit that this is largely guesswork: on the most alarming of all scenarios, the melting of the East Antarctic ice sheet, the sea level rise would be 55 metres.

The central city of Beira, large parts of which are already below sea level, is at serious risk. Currently Beira's sea defences will cope with a tidal surge of 3.4 metres. But a weather event where the water rises by 3.8 metres would overwhelm the defences. Such extreme events are expected once every five years now - and once every three years by 2030.

If the "extreme sea level increase" scenario occurs, Beira is doomed. By 2050, the higher parts of Beira will be an island, cut off from the rest of the country. That implies moving Beira port, and its connecting railways to somewhere safer.

The people too will have to move. "A strategy for organised evacuation must be drawn up", warned university researcher Rui Brito, who presented the study.

Other coastal cities do not face quite such a dramatic future. But Maputo port, and the city's coastal area are at risk, and much of the northern city of Pemba could disappear under the waves, if there is significant melting of the polar ice caps.

The researchers warn that, even today, Mozambique cannot cope with a major cyclone. Major investments in coastal protection are needed immediately. The longer the delay, the more expensive remedial action will become.

Speaking at the launch of the study, the Resident Representative of the United Nations System, Ndolamb Ngokwey, stressed the need to act speedily, and for all bodies involved to coordinate their efforts.

"Climate change will exacerbate the existing political and humanitarian problems, and will reduce access to water, with a direct impact on agriculture", he warned.

INGC General Director Joao Ribeiro told reporters that there will now be a second study to draw up specific action to be undertaken by each sector of the Mozambican state.