The real science behind the unreal predictions of major earthquakes in 2018

By Sarah Kaplan

Rebecca Bendick would like you not to panic.

The University of Montana geophysicist knows you may have read the articles warning about “swarms of devastating earthquakes” that will allegedly rock the planet next year thanks to a slowdown of the Earth's rotation. And she feels “very awful” if you've been alarmed. Those dire threats are based on Bendick's research into patterns that might predict earthquakes  — but claims of an impending “earthquake boom” are mostly sensationalism.

Here's what the science actually says.

There is no way to predict an individual earthquake. Earthquakes occur when potential energy stored along cracks in the planet's crust gets released, sending seismic waves through the Earth. Since scientists know where those cracks exist, and how they are likely to convulse, they can develop forecasts of the general threat for an area. But the forces that contribute to this energy buildup and trigger its release are global and complex, and we still cannot sort out exactly how it might unfold.

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