Scaling up social protection for food security in a climate-constrained world

Next month the G20 Leaders' Summit will take place in Rio de Janeiro, where pressing issues such as food security and the climate crisis will be under focus. However, the G20 and other major platforms - including next year's Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development - have yet to fully integrate climate risks into their food security strategies. Brazil's G20 presidency offers a unique opportunity to close this gap, particularly with the upcoming official launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty.

The world is facing a food security crisis due to climate change. Unpredictable rainfall, prolonged droughts and more frequent storms are disrupting agricultural systems globally.

If global temperatures rise by just 2°C by 2050, an estimated 80 million more people could experience hunger, with the most severe impacts in regions such as sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia and Central America.

In 2023, 828 million people were already experiencing hunger, worsened by climate shocks and post-pandemic economic instability. This disproportionately affects vulnerable populations in the least developed countries (LDCs) and Small Island Developing States (SIDS), highlighting the urgent need for action.

Social protection: a proactive solution

A recent paper published by IIED shows how anticipatory social protection can act as a proactive solution that can help vulnerable countries manage risks and develop resilience before a food crisis reaches critical level. Research has consistently highlighted the value of acting early: for every dollar invested in anticipatory measures, up to US$15 can be saved in emergency aid and recovery costs.

Early intervention protects households from sliding further into poverty and avoids long-term damage to livelihoods and economies caused by food crises. For example, interventions such as cash transfers or climate-responsive safety nets can provide early financial support to households, enabling them to secure food before supply chains are disrupted or crops are lost to extreme weather events.

ASPIRE: addressing food security challenges

A bespoke index, developed through the Anticipatory Social Protection Index for Resilience (ASPIRE) tool, is providing a framework for assessing how effectively countries are using their social protection programmes for addressing food security in the context of climate change.

Drawing from the FAO's definition of food security, the ASPIRE Food Security Index evaluates performance across four pillars: availability, accessibility, utilisation and stability. This is based on data drawn from eight countries: Bangladesh, Ethiopia, Ghana, India, Malawi, Pakistan, Senegal and Uganda.

The analysis has revealed varying performances across the countries, with Ethiopia standing out for its high scores in utilisation and availability, largely because of the Productive Safety Net Program, which ensures food security by supporting farmers during drought.

India, meanwhile, has a particularly high utilisation score because of national food security laws and public distribution systems, which ensure vulnerable populations have access to nutritious food.

On the other hand, Bangladesh and Pakistan show significant weaknesses in availability and stability: this is due to poor targeting mechanisms (where the benefits do not reach the intended recipients) and limited anticipatory risk financing (where funds are released before the peak impact of a known imminent hazard or disaster, to reduce its impacts).

The graph below summarises these performances, highlighting countries where investments are most needed.

Building climate-resilient food security

Addressing food security in the context of climate change requires the four pillars - availability, accessibility, utilisation and stability - to be strengthened (as shown in the image and text below).

To strengthen availability of food, it is important to map climate risks, establish early warning systems and integrate climate risk-based triggers into the delivery of social protection. Anticipatory insurance schemes, such as parametric insurance (which releases funds based on pre-agreed climate triggers like droughts), can provide timely financial support during climate shocks.

In addition, investments in environmental conservation and water management through public works-based social protection programmes can help sustain food production.

When it comes to strengthening accessibility to food, ensuring affordability and reaching marginalised groups is essential. This includes providing portable benefits for migrants and developing robust information systems for better delivery. Collaborations with local banks and financial institutions, and with rapid fund disbursement mechanisms, can help stabilise food access during crises.

Food utilisation is commonly understood as the way the body makes the most of various nutrients in food. Strengthening this pillar will involve a focus on improving health and nutrition by enhancing healthcare infrastructure and promoting hygiene. Coordination between ministries such as agriculture, health and social development, and stakeholders such as grassroots NGOs, is crucial for addressing food safety and ensuring effective use of food.

To strengthen the fourth pillar, stability, the focus should be on economic diversification and infrastructure investments. Sustainable financing (including debt relief and parametric insurance) is essential to maintaining stable food systems so that governments have enough funds for social protection during climate disasters. Innovative funding mechanisms, such as resilience bonds, can help to address financial constraints and build long-term resilience.

Approach to enhancing food security through anticipatory social protection

Impact of climate events

Anticipatory and shock responsive social protection

Availability

• Loss of crop yields
• Loss of livestock and fishery yields
• Soil degradation
• Define and map risks and establish early warning systems
• Develop risk-responsive policy frameworks
• Integrate climate-risk-based triggers into social protection
• Develop anticipatory insurance schemes
• Support environmental conservation and water management

Utilisation

• Poor nutritional quality
• Increased disease burden
• Food safety issues
• Promote health holistically
• Educate on nutrition and safe cooking practices
• Strengthen healthcare infrastructure and services
• Establish bodies and mechanisms for coordinating social policy
• Support coordination between stakeholders at all levels

Accessibility

• Loss of affordability
• Damage to physical infrastructure
• Increased social inequalities
• Strengthen efforts to identify and reach people in need
• Address inequity, exclusion and marginalisation
• Offer portable benefits to migrant populations
• Develop robust information systems to improve delivery
• Develop rapid disbursement mechanisms and strong collaboration with financial partners
• Provide fee waivers and subsidies
• Build and maintain resilient roads and transportation networks

Stability

• Fluctuating food supply
• Unstable incomes
• Exposure to risks
• Weak economy
• Enhance economic stability through livelihood diversification and infrastructure investments
• Back delivery mechanisms that work in vulnerable countries
• Provide sustainable financing
• Develop contingency funds
• Address funding constraints through innovative financing mechanisms

Leveraging global platforms: G20 and Financing for Development

Although promising solutions are being explored, there are still gaps in how global platforms address food security. Major initiatives such as the G20 and the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FfD4) are yet to fully integrate climate risks into their strategies.

With Brazil's G20 presidency in 2024, there is a unique opportunity to close this gap - especially through the official launch of the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty at November's G20 Summit. The alliance seeks to mobilise global resources and foster policy reforms to combat food insecurity.

Renato D. Godinho, co-chair of the special G20 taskforce created to establish the Global Alliance Against Hunger and Poverty, said:

"Targeted adaptive national policies and social protection systems focusing on the poorest and most vulnerable should be an integral and essential part of any climate adaptation strategy. While such policies and programmes are included in the Global Alliance's reference policy basket, the international community, including climate financing community and the affected countries themselves, need to include them at the core of their priorities.

"The Global Alliance's Inception Document, a political statement endorsed by the G20, is already quite clear on the multiple links between climate, poverty and hunger, as well as the need for climate finance to better consider programmes and solutions in the social protection and smallholder farmer support fields."

As the ASPIRE index highlights, countries worldwide are currently facing numerous challenges, particularly due to climate-related disruptions and the need for anticipatory social protection. Brazil's leadership on this issue could drive climate resilience in these countries' global food security efforts, ensuring vulnerable populations are better protected from both food insecurity and the growing impacts of climate change.

At FfD4 in 2025, the reform of international financial architecture will be a key focus. By advocating for integration of innovative financing solutions, it can help LDCs and SIDS to build food security against climate shocks. For instance, parametric insurance allows for quick financial relief to stabilise food systems before crises escalate. Debt relief mechanisms tied to climate events will free up resources for countries to invest in anticipatory social protection without being burdened by repayments during disasters.

Additionally, international taxation on large polluters could fund global climate resilience efforts, supporting vulnerable nations' food security programmes. Meanwhile, carbon markets and resilience bonds can finance infrastructure projects such as irrigation and soil conservation, enhancing both climate adaptation and food security systems. These innovative strategies are vital for ensuring nations can withstand future food crises linked to climate change.

A call for global solidarity

With the growing climate risks, we can no longer afford to wait for crises to unfold. Platforms like the G20 and FfD4 present critical opportunities to enhance food security - and these opportunities must be seized.

By integrating climate risks and social protection into global strategies, we can create a future where no one is left behind in the fight against hunger and food insecurity.