Scientists find new technique for predicting record-breaking heat waves

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Now, research released Tuesday shows that such record-shattering heat waves — dubbed virtually impossible without climate change — can be predicted by existing climate models. The study, which models extreme scenarios for various cities, unlocks a new technique that could help communities better prepare for life-threatening heat waves in the future.

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Temperatures are record-breaking and life-threatening in areas, and simulations in the study show that Chicago and Paris could be poised to experience even more extreme heat waves — sometimes 2 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than observed — in the future under slightly different atmospheric conditions. Ham said the study is not necessarily making predictions, but it shows what this new technique could discover.

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In the new study, Fischer and his colleagues set out to predict large record-breaking heat waves using current climate models. The team modeled 1,000 years of today’s climate to simulate the Pacific Northwest heat wave and found very intense heat waves occurred, but the heat waves still weren’t as extreme as observed — not terribly surprising.

When we run climate models, we get snapshots of how the weather could play out in the future, but limited computing resources means we only get a limited set of snapshots,” Ham said. “This means that we might well never see in the models the most extreme weather that we will experience in reality.”

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