Should I stay or should I go? Actionable early warnings for floods in Kenya

Having a flood-forecasting system in place is not enough: early warnings need to be understandable and actionable for communities, so that they can mitigate the impacts of these hazards. As part of the Welthungerhilfe (WHH) Anticipatory Humanitarian Action Facility (WAHAFA) programme, WHH Kenya, the Pastoralist Community Initiative and Development Assistance (PACIDA) and other stakeholders carried out a simulation exercise to test the readiness and effectiveness of their anticipatory action plan (AAP) for floods - including the early warning messages that will be disseminated when a flood is forecast.

Getting the message right

A major task in the simulation exercise was to develop early warning messages for communities at risk from floods. To determine how best to communicate with those at risk, participants in the simulation looked at how different communities typically receive and send information. This 'community profiling' helps to identify people's lifestyles, interests, levels of education, media-consumption habits, and how they prefer to engage. Community profiling should be part of the process of developing all AAPs, as it can guide the development of an effective early warning system and respective engagement strategy.

The warning messages were tailored to specific groups within the community, such as women or persons with disabilities. Considering the diversity within a society is important for ensuring that everyone receives, and can act on, warnings about a hazard. It also helps to ensure that the information they receive is tailored to their actual needs and takes into account characteristics such as gender, age and economic situation.

Building on this activity, the participants developed a communications plan that outlines how and when to disseminate the messages, and who needs to be involved in this process. This communication plan includes:

• the target audiences
• the message content - the warnings and the action(s) to take
• the language(s) to be used
• the type of communication (e.g., verbal, written, visual)
• dissemination time(s) (e.g., mornings, after prayers)
• the channel(s) (e.g., radio, WhatsApp, house to house) and channel 'owner' who should be involved or contacted (e.g., community leader, imam, radio station)
• the person with overall responsibility.

Testing the early warning messages

Together with some of the participants from the simulation exercise, PACIDA and WHH Kenya visited communities with experience of developing AAPs. During the visits, the draft versions of the early warning messages were presented to community members. In small groups, they discussed the messages and refined the wording to make them more understandable.

The community members provided inputs for the communications plan as well. For example, they were able to confirm some of the assumptions made during the drafting process, such as men preferring to receive flood warnings over local radio and in local languages like Borana and Turkana.

Importantly, they noted the preference to receive this information in the evening. This is when the whole family comes together to listen to the radio, as by that time, men are back from herding cattle and women have returned from household responsibilities such as fetching water and collecting firewood. Receiving messages at this time also allows men to discuss matters in their traditional parliament, which is held around 9pm. This forum allows them to spread the message to other households and enables all community members to take immediate action.

Integrating community perspectives

The community members agreed that tailoring warnings for men and women would help to make messages more actionable and relevant. In many parts of Kenya, different genders have very specific social responsibilities. In the event of a flood warning, men will rush to evacuate the livestock, while women will take care of children and belongings. Therefore, early warning messages targeted at men should focus on livestock and potential safer grounds to evacuate their animals to. Women, however, need information on where to evacuate children, the elderly and other family members, as well as how to salvage important documents such as birth certificates.

Community members noted that including timelines for actions helped to make the warnings become more actionable and more likely to be taken seriously. Concrete language and specific instructions on what to do and where to go would also help to improve the actions taken.

The communities flagged that early warning messages needs to be conflict-sensitive. Telling people to evacuate to safer areas may mean moving to neighbouring communities who may not welcome them. Competition over scarce resources, such as grazing land, due to an influx of livestock from other communities has led to conflicts in the past. Holding government-led peace meetings and having agreements in place to prepare host communities for the potential influx of people and livestock could help mitigate such hostilities.

The communities also welcomed the idea of incorporating traditional knowledge into early warning messages and merging traditional forecasts with scientific ones. They did, however, note the challenges with traditional forecasts. One method used is to study goat intestines for weather and climate forecasts but, after past disasters had decimated livestock herds, it was difficult to persuade people to donate a goat, as their herds had already been significantly reduced.

Voices from the community

During the community visits to test the early warning messages, community members shared their perspectives and past experiences with floods and early warning information, while also reflecting on how to co-design such messages.

WAHAFA is a multi-year programme financed by the German Federal Foreign Office. Find out more about its approach to people-centred, locally led anticipatory action protocols on the project page (forthcoming).