Surface air temperature for February 2020

Temperatures in February 2020 were above the 1981-2010 average over almost all of Europe. They were extremely high for the time of year in the east, in a region extending southward from southern Finland to northern Ukraine and eastward over Russia. For the second month running, the average temperature reported for Helsinki was more than 5ºC higher than the 1981-2010 average for the month. Continuing mild temperatures over Germany led for the first time to the complete failure of the country’s harvest of ice wine, as the low temperatures needed did not occur this winter.

Rather unusually for recent years, but as in January 2020, temperatures were below normal over the Svalbard archipelago, where sea-ice extent  was close to its 1981-2010 average. Unusually warm temperatures east of the southern half of Greenland coincide with below-average sea-ice cover there.

Considerably above-average temperatures were not confined to Europe, but extended over most of Russia. Temperatures were also much above average over West Antarctica. Other regions that were quite substantially warmer than average include north-western Africa, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asia, and much of China, with smaller pockets in North and South America, central and southern Africa and Western Australia.

Temperatures were much below average over the easternmost part of Russia, Alaska, northern Canada and Greenland. It was also colder than average, but to a lesser degree, over several other quite extensive areas of land. Among them is south-eastern Australia, where conditions were in contrast to those experienced earlier in the region’s summer.

Although regions of below-average temperature occurred over all major oceans, particularly in the southern hemisphere, air temperatures over sea were predominantly higher than the 1981-2010 average.

Monthly global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, from January 1979 to February 2020. The darker coloured bars denote the February values. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Global temperatures were substantially above average in February 2020. The month was:

• 0.8°C warmer than the average February from 1981-2010, making it the second warmest February in this data record;

• cooler by a little under 0.1°C than February 2016, the warmest February;

• 0.1°C warmer than February 2017, which is now the third warmest February;

• exceeded in anomalous warmth only by February and March 2016.

European-average temperature anomalies are generally larger and more variable than global anomalies, especially in winter, when they can change by several degrees from one month to the next. The European-average temperature for February 2020 was particularly high. The month was:

• 3.9°C warmer than the average February in the period 1981-2010;

• the second warmest February in this data record, after February 1990, which was 4.5°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average;

• •0.1°C warmer than February 2016, which is now the third warmest February.

Boreal winter - December 2019 to February 2020

Surface air temperature anomaly for the boreal winter from December 2019 to February 2020 relative to the average for 1981-2010. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF. DOWNLOAD THE ORIGINAL IMAGE

The regions with highly anomalous temperatures tended to persist throughout the period from December to February, such that the map of temperature anomalies for the boreal winter of 2019/20 is quite similar in pattern to that already shown and discussed for February 2020. Exceptions include the USA, which is generally warmer in the winter average than in the average for February alone, and south-eastern Australia, as discussed earlier. 

The persistence of above-average temperatures over Europe resulted in a December-February average temperature for the continent that was 3.4ºC above the 1981-2010 norm. This makes 2019/20 by far the warmest European winter in this and longer data records. The 2019/20 temperature exceeded that of the previous warmest winter, 2015/16, by almost 1.4ºC.

Winter (December, January, February) averages of European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, from 1979/80 to 2019/20. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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The last 12 months - March 2019 to February 2020

Surface air temperature anomaly for March 2019 to February 2020 relative to the average for 1981-2010. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF
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 Running twelve-month averages of global-mean and European-mean surface air temperature anomalies relative to 1981-2010, based on monthly values from January 1979 to February 2020. The darker coloured bars are the averages for each of the calendar years from 1979 to 2019. Data source: ERA5. Credit: Copernicus Climate Change Service/ECMWF.
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Averaging over twelve-month periods smooths out shorter-term variations in regional- and global-average temperatures. Globally, the twelve-month period from March 2019 to February 2020 was 0.64°C warmer than the 1981-2010 average. The warmest twelve-month period was from October 2015 to September 2016, with a temperature 0.66°C above average. 2016 is the warmest calendar year on record, with a global temperature 0.63°C above that for 1981-2010. 2019 is the second warmest calendar year in this data record, with a temperature 0.59°C above average.

0.63°C should be added to these values to relate recent global temperatures to the pre-industrial level defined in the IPCC Special Report on “Global Warming of 1.5°C”. The average temperature for the twelve months to February 2020 is close to 1.3°C above the level. The average for February 2020 alone is more than 1.4°C above the level. The only month whose average temperature reached more than 1.5°C above the level is February 2016.

The spread in the global averages from various temperature datasets has been relatively large over the past three years. During this period the twelve-month-average temperatures, relative to 1981-2010, presented here are higher than those from five other datasets, by between 0.03°C and 0.14°C, with median 0.06°C, for the year 2019. This is due partly to differences in the extent to which datasets represent the relatively warm conditions that have predominated over the Arctic and the seas around Antarctica. Differences in estimates both of sea-surface temperature elsewhere and of temperatures over land outside the Arctic have been further factors. There is nevertheless general agreement between the datasets regarding:

• the exceptional warmth of 2016, and the warmth also of 2015, 2017, 2018 and especially 2019;

• the general increase in global temperature at an average rate close to 0.2°C per decade since the late 1970s;

• the sustained period of above-average temperatures from 2002 onwards.

There is more variability in average European temperatures, but values are less uncertain because observational coverage of the continent is relatively dense. Twelve-month averages for Europe were at a high level from 2014 to 2016. They then fell, but remained 0.5°C or more above the 1981-2010 average. Twelve-month averages have subsequently risen again. The latest average, to February 2020, is 1.6°C above the 1981-2010 norm, making the last twelve months the warmest such period on record, with a temperature 0.1°C higher than the next warmest period, which was the overlapping twelve-month period ending in January 2020. 2019 was the warmest calendar year on record for Europe as a whole, by a narrow margin.

The average surface air temperature analysis homepage explains more about the production and reliability of the values presented here.