WMO: Atmospheric research to enhance warnings and reduce risk
World Meteorological Organization press release no.867
Never before have severe weather, climate, water and air quality forecasts been as necessary as they are today. Experts in atmospheric research from all regions are meeting this week (18 to 25 November 2009) in Incheon, Republic of Korea, to discuss future international research to improve forecasts and assessments; and development of carbon tracking tools necessary in climate mitigation and adaptation.
Vulnerability to air pollution and severe weather is especially high in urban areas, which is home to half of the world’s population. According to UN Habitat, this figure is expected to increase up to 9 billion in 2050, with the largest cities in the developing world. Air pollution in megacities is directly influenced by atmospheric chemistry, weather and climate. According to the World Health Organization, an annual average of 2.3 million premature deaths is caused by air pollution. This is related to fine particulate matter (aerosols including black carbon) and urban smog including ozone. Action to reduce black carbon released to the atmosphere could have immediate impacts not only on human health but also on climate.
Air quality forecasts are issued by an increasing number of National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, many of which also provide a wide variety of user-friendly air quality indices and advisories. However, it remains a challenge to deliver quality services to local communities in a timely fashion. Many cities are lacking adequate air-quality monitoring. Regardless of action taken to reduce pollution, air quality research and information delivery systems provided by WMO Members are needed for allowing people to protect their health.
Research over the past five years has significantly improved weather forecasting skills on all time scales from hours to days to weeks. The WMO World Weather Research Programme seeks to improve weather forecasts on the short term (0 to 12 hours) through Nowcasting and Mesoscale research (warning of tornadoes and flash floods) and on the longer term (days to season) through THORPEX, which is an international research activity aimed at accelerating improvements in the accuracy of typhoon track prediction, high wind, storm surges and severe flooding.
Another recent advance by coordinated international research and operations is the WMO Sand and Dust Storm Warning Advisory and Assessment System, which is available to impacted populations of the world served by two nodes of coordination, Asia, and Northern Africa, Middle East and Europe. Access to forecasts provided by more than at least fourteen prediction centres is being offered with guidance to users at risk because of the impacts of sand and dust on human health, transport, agriculture and various economic sectors.
The WMO Global Atmosphere Watch and its national partners monitor and analyze change in the abundance of greenhouse gases and aerosols driving climate change. The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin is presented annually to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change summarizing community consensus on trends and the state of the global observations system. Research in the past five years has demonstrated the potential for combining global observations of carbon dioxide with numerical weather prediction models to yield a “carbon dioxide emissions tracking” tool useful in national and international efforts to reduce greenhouse gases in the atmosphere as part of a strategy to combat climate change. WMO is uniquely positioned to bring weather and atmospheric composition observations together, to provide information needed in building climate mitigation and adaptation strategies.
The research experts are meeting for the WMO fifteenth quadrennial session of the Commission for Atmospheric Science.
For more information please contact: Ms Carine Richard-Van Maele, Chief, Communications and Public Affairs, Tel: +41 (0) 22 730 8314, E-mail: [email protected] Ms Gaëlle Sévenier, Press Officer, Communications and Public Affairs, Tel. +41 (0) 22 730 8417, E-mail: [email protected]