Canada in 2030: Frequent, more intense wildfires a reality

By Isabella O'Malley 

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The boreal forest has intrinsic value to Canada - it is part of it's history, economy, and heritage and is home to many species and communities. As wildfires become more frequent and intense, a greater amount of old trees burn away. While new trees do grow back, repeat wildfires that quickly follow each other will prevent trees from reaching maturity, and a study projects that at least 50 per cent of Alberta's young deciduous forest and grassland by 2100. This estimate is likely on the conservative side, since this study only modelled climate and wildfire disturbance and did not include the impacts from drought or human activity. 

So what will happen by 2030?

• Wildfire season will continue to lengthen, and new regions will experience more fire-prone conditions.
• Wildfires will become an increasingly large source of carbon dioxide emissions, which will increase the complexity of evaluating Canada's progress for meeting target carbon reductions. 
• Atmospheric temperatures will continuing their warming trend, which will bring more drought conditions and heat waves. Many regions will see record-breaking summer temperatures and will have to adapt land-management practices to drier, warmer conditions. 
• Forestry management will see larger fluctuations on a year-to-year basis and will need to implement strategies to monitor fire-risk and foliage buildup. Mitigation efforts, such as installing lightning rods, could become critical for preventing wildfires caused by increased lightning. 
• Alberta's landscape will change as wildfires become more frequent and wipe out older vegetation. Conservation efforts and increased protected areas will be required to maintain the historic landscape, and the forestry sector will have to account for dwindling resources, which could have large impacts on the economy and employment opportunities. 
• The cost of wildfires largely falls on provincial governments - taxpayers in Alberta and B.C. will have to make decisions about government spending on changing wildfire prevention and relief.