We need a jigsaw approach to climate-driven displacement
Each year the climate negotiations attempt to deal with the human cost of climate change - in particular climate-driven displacement. While recent talks have acknowledged the issue, concrete action remains elusive.
The limits of climate negotiations
We are well into this year's United Nations climate conference but questions remain about its role in addressing climate-driven migration and displacement. The annual Conference of the Parties (COP) has increasingly grappled with this issue, but its ability to effect change remains uncertain.
Last year's COP28 made some progress in recognizing climate-driven displacement. The conference's global stocktake - an assessment of climate action progress - acknowledged the vulnerability of displaced populations. It called on governments to advance efforts in averting, minimising, and addressing Loss and Damage related to displacement, relocation, and migration. These developments signal growing awareness of displacement as a critical climate change impact. But they are still merely acknowledgement of the existence of the issue, rather than concrete measures and commitments.
Delegations arrive at COP expecting to negotiate on issues around carbon, finance and timelines. They don’t arrive with a mandate to reach a new agreement on protecting the rights of people on the move.
The COP process faces inherent limitations in addressing climate-driven displacement. The conference does not have the mandate to reach agreements on the right to move across borders. It cannot establish a new rights framework specifically for people displaced by climate change. Put simply, delegations arrive expecting to negotiate on issues around carbon, finance and timelines. They don't arrive at COP with a mandate to reach a new agreement on protecting the rights of people on the move. While it can encourage cooperation, decisions about migration and asylum policies remain firmly outside of COP's remit.
What could COP29 achieve?
COP can play a role in addressing the financial implications of climate-driven displacement. In theory, the Loss and Damage framework provides an avenue for this support. Loss and Damage refers to the destructive consequences of climate change that cannot be avoided through mitigation or adaptation efforts. It includes economic losses, like destroyed infrastructure, but also non-economic losses like cultural heritage or ecosystems. Climate-driven displacement potentially fits within this. When people are displaced or forced to relocate due to climate impacts, they experience profound losses - of homes, livelihoods, and social networks. The costs of resettlement and rebuilding are substantial.
Through the Loss and Damage framework, the COP process could channel financial resources to countries facing significant climate-driven displacement. This funding could potentially support various activities from meeting the costs of protracted displacement situations, creating early warning systems or financing long-term relocation. The fund could also finance research to better understand displacement patterns and needs.
Coping with climate-driven displacement is expensive. Most of that cost is currently borne by the most climate-vulnerable countries. The Loss and Damage framework could - in theory - start to share those costs globally and make high-emitting countries financially responsible.
The Loss and Damage agenda is primarily driven forward by climate-vulnerable countries in the Global South. It faces significant resistance from developed countries and high emitters, who fear the financial and legal implications of accepting responsibility for climate-related losses. While the Loss and Damage framework could eventually address some of the financial aspects of climate displacement, it is unlikely to yield significant progress this year.
Not the only show in town
COP is not the only forum available to tackle climate-driven displacement. The Platform on Disaster Displacement has created a non-binding agreement that sets out practices for addressing cross-border displacement in disaster contexts, including those linked to climate change. It aims to better protect people through improved disaster preparedness and strengthened rights protection.
Several other global agreements also play a role in addressing climate displacement. The Guiding Principles on Internal Displacement, while not specifically focused on climate change, provide a framework for protecting the rights of people displaced within their own countries. The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction focuses on understanding disaster risks, strengthening disaster risk governance, and investing in resilience.
Climate-driven displacement is too complex to be left to any single process or agreement. While COP has the potential to address some financial aspects of climate-driven displacement, it is clear that COP alone will not provide a comprehensive answer. A jigsaw approach is needed, one that uses a patchwork of agreements to create a more robust response to the challenge.