By David Alexander
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Governments that are worth their salt know this and they know not to underestimate the power of natural forces. They also know that, no matter how good the forecast is, there are bound to be uncertainties. The extra-tropical storm that struck the south of England, and northern continental Europe almost exactly 30 years ago was a case in point: 18 dead and 15 million trees uprooted, yet the public warning process failed, to the eternal embarrassment of those who were responsible for it.
Since then, the study of atmospheric dynamics has cracked on, forecasting has improved, and governments have started listening to scientists, not only about things that are clear and certain, but also about the role of uncertainty in science.
In the US (and also recently in India), people in their millions have been told to evacuate when hurricanes are close to making landfall. If the hurricane veers away and the evacuation proves to have been unnecessary, there are always criticisms. People do not like to be inconvenienced unnecessarily. However, many recognise the virtue of behaving prudently. Next time, it may be very different. Hence, the idea of a “cry wolf” syndrome has not really gained traction.
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