Towards a post-2015 framework for Disaster Risk Reduction BUILDING THE RESILIENCE OF NATIONS AND COMMUNITIES TO DISASTERS

Though climate is changing and impacting nature adversely leading to natural disaster though it partly involve human actions too. I totally agree that weather has changed extremely and the adverse effect can be seen shortly.

The major concern is that in the remote areas of India people do not understand the concept of Climate Change. Mostly, as we see in India there are certain places where flood occur frequently and destroy the cropping pattern, soil condition and entire livelihood and the local community reside in that areas are not much resilient. They feel that it God's curse on them. Flooding is of course a natural disaster but its origin comes from climate change. The frequency of occurrence has increased a lot but behavioral change is not seen much.

Risk to life and property is increasing day by day while our capacities are not up to the mark.

Dear Guido,

Thanks for the post. Do elaborate a bit though, because while you appear to challenge "climate change" you are highlighting a series of extreme weather events that Namibia was unprepared for. Also do comment on how "the too much water" flood offered opportunities if any to recharge ground water, and whether there were lost opportunities in not managing better a 'welcome" flood .

I look forward to a follow up post from you.

LOY

Dear Loy
Thanks for follow-up. It wasn't my intention to challenge climate change, and I tried to state that at the end of my comment. I merely tried to say that not every natural occurrence of floods is to be attributed to climate change. I will send a longer comment by this evening, although I don't want to be enticed in a forever debate. We all know that climate change is there for temperature rise and for rising sealevels. But we don't know about riverflows and floods in Namibia.
Regards
Guido Van Langenhove

Dear Loy
Again, it isn’t my intention to challenge climate change. I merely wanted to state that not all extreme events should be attributed to climate change and that management (preparedness, readiness, monitoring, warning, response, mitigation, prevention) of such events is not to be done only or mainly in function of climate change.
Meteorological extremes are climate/weather features. Floods, or in general other hydrological extremes (water resources droughts), are results of climate/weather extremes interacting with other factors. In Namibia, riverflows in general and floods in particular are the result of the interaction of rainfall and terrain response. Disaster impacts are also influenced by exposure and vulnerability factors, which are mainly human decision-based.
Analyses of rainfall series in Namibia have shown no definite change in magnitudes and patterns so far. Climate forecasts show the widest range and are not even agreeing on the direction: more or less rains, higher or lower intensities at increased or reduced frequencies.
Analyses of flood series in Namibia have also shown no definite changes in magnitudes and patterns so far (and I think this is world-wide). Models show that the impact of human-induced changes, urbanization, deforestation, different/better land uses, abstractions, reservoir regulations, may have much more impact than climate change.
Impacts of recent floods in Namibia have been disastrous because they had been absent for so long.
Namibia always had high variability in weather/climate and hydrology. And management should be done for this variability, and it will then also cover climate change. But now climate change has become the buzzword that obscures everything.
Again, my comments are regarding riverflows and water resources in Namibia. Nothing less and nothing more.
Regards
Guido Van Langenhove

The backdrop for the Himalayan region which the post Hyogo framework must address is as follows :-

1. Rainfall patterns are undergoing a perceptible change with
a) Winter rains almost vanishing, as such we would probably have 6 months of drought-like conditions followed by 6 months of rain (May-Oct, during the south west monsoons.) Thus, with a large number of natural springs drying up, we could expect a severe drinking water crisis looming in large parts of the mountainous regions in the years ahead.
As such there is an urgent necessity to think about about rain water harvesting technologies/methods and large scale implementation thereof.
b) Also rainfall during the monsoons in the mountains which was characterized by periods of prolonged drizzle is changing to a pattern where we get heavy showers at night for a few days followed by less or no rain during the day.
c) Heavier showers instead of drizzle results in more runoff which in turn causes :-
i) Increased soil erosion and landslides.
ii) Failure to recharge underground aquifers which in turn would add to the water shortage. This brings about the question of learning to recharge acquifers towards which some work has been done in the state of Sikkim (India).
d) Also as it happened in 2012, the onset/withdrawal of the monsoons may itself be changing and may require changes in type of crops or the plantation season.
e) In Kalimpong (where SaveTheHills, a regd NGO working on the landslide problem of the Darjeeling-Sikkim Himalaya, is based) we had a mild monsoon this year but a rainfall pattern which was earlier considered abnormal but is now becoming normal is that of Sep2012 when we received 84% of the monthly rainfall in one week (10-17Sep2012), the rest of the month being largely dry.
2. Other crucial issues in the hills are the tremendous anthropogenic interference taking place and the impact of
a) Population growth / tourism, on the fragile mountain environment. (The population of Darjeeling town swells to almost double the 1,842034 during the tourist season)
b) Developmental activities such as
i) construction of a large number of dams, which are resulting in big mountain rivers like the Teesta almost becoming dry during the non-monsoon periods.
ii) wide spread construction of roads often by unqualified people.
iii) sand mining and stone quarrying along river beds which has resulted in the removal of almost all sand and boulders for construction purposes.
c) irregulated, unplanned and rampant construction activities in over-crowded hill towns in seismically vulnerable areas.
3. Thus with so much human interference in the mountains, we may well be facing a scenario where the incidents & intensity of landslides increase even as the rainfall actually decreases. Scientists have carried out a tremendous amount of research on the science of landslides but no serious work has been done on human-induced landslides (relatively small/shallow landslides in populated areas caused by mainly drainage problems, construction of roads etc), which are turning out to be number one cause of landslide fatalities.
4. Lastly and most importantly, the post Hyogo framework for India must ensure speedy and rigorous implementation of DRR activities and regular monitoring of the implementation at all levels.

Dear participants,

Thanks to Praful and Rabah for their posts on the occurrence of extreme weather events in the Himalayan region of North East India and Algeria and the Saharan region respectively.

Rabah points to unusual incidence of torrential rain and unexpected flash floods which inflict severe damage in ‘wadis”, and hopes that the ongoing Algiers study will give some ideas for adaptive behavior. Praful shares with us the changing rainfall patterns in the Himalayan foot hills, the reduced ‘winter rains’, drought like conditions and the impact on depleted aquifers. He points out to exacerbating ‘anthropogenic interference’ and unsustainable mountain “development ‘activities resulting in human induced landslides, and identifies some ‘solutions’ in terms of rainwater harvesting, changes in type of crops or the plantation season and better planning of construction and water management.

What extreme climate events do you experience in your region? Have you had experience of implementing DRR actions in these contexts?

Do share with us your experience,

Warmly,

LOY

Vulnerability to poverty is triggered by changes in severity and frequency of extreme weather, climate events, consequent changes in behaviour and deepened by climate change impacts. Agriculture and productivity are drastically reduced by extreme and adverse climate events such as droughts and floods that destroy agricultural systems in developing countries. Best practices through lessons learned for vulnerability to climate change and closely linked to disaster risk reduction are methods to increase vegetation and crops of small agricultural productions. The purpose of challenge, approach of intervention and process of economic development should minimise disruption of ecosystems and community systems that exists in nature and harmony. Sustainable development in most circumstance of changes in extreme weather and climate events is framework of action for local and global economic reform to develop partnerships, community-based issue analysis, action planning, monitoring and implementation.

Dear participants,

Many thanks to Jalil and Tomoko for their posts in what has been a very lively conversation.

Jalil narrates the experience of the widespread floods of 2010 and Sindh floods of 2011; and the apprehensions of people in Northern Pakistan about glacier melt and consequent GLOFs or snow avalanches. He shares that the rigid and culturally strict people recognize the importance of awareness on this issue have begun to think about safe dwellings, sustainable livelihood sources, change in crop patterns and preparedness. Tomoko talks of the vulnerability to floods of Edogawa city in Tokyo region, which shares low lying characteristics with other Asian cities. She recognizes that the process of economic development should minimize disruption of ecosystems and community systems that exists in harmony in nature and therefore sustainable development is the most appropriate framework of action for local and global economic reform and to develop partnerships, community-based issue analysis, action planning, and implementation.

These 12 posts have seen a lively reporting of specific changes in patterns of extreme climate and weather event, and while there has been some debate on whether this reflects variability or longer term change, there is unanimity about the need for improved preparedness and the building of resilience to deal with extreme weather events. Such evidence from ground level in at risk regions of Asia, Africa and Europe, bolsters the case for achieving better synergy and linkage between DRR and CCA in building adaptive capacity and resilience to disaster and climate risks.

Thank you to all writers and readers of this dialogue for your whole hearted and engaged contributions and participation.

Warmly,

LOY

I’ve been following this discussion with great interest. Guido’s posts got
me thinking about what can be done to encourage decision makers to act, even when Climate change projections, particularly at the local scale carry a fair amount of uncertainty? 

Clearly the role of national hydro-met services and technical institutions play a huge role in explaining uncertainty, but this only happens when there are effective means of dialogue between the scientific and policy/operational communities.There are excellent examples of climate forecast applications that have been rolled out in countries such as Bangladesh where met services and agricultural extension services work with farming communities to translate seasonal forecasts(with their attendant uncertainties)  into practical action.  

productive approaches to decision making under conditions of uncertainty applied in many locations – for instance no/low regrets options (such as investing in multi-hazard early warning systems) , scenario-based planning, regional outlook forums (such as are convened in the Greater Horn of Africa to review and “build consensus” in  interpreting season climate forecasts), or developing solutions that work across of “range of possible futures” (  http://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/uncertainty-guidance/topic2).

The question remains what can be done to promote efforts such as these?  What does experience from our previous efforts in these areas tell us?

Best, Glenn