Arab climate futures

This paper shows that successfully tackling climate change will depend on decisions taken both in the region and outside. Despite growing insight that it is not ‘just’ an environmental affair, it still ranks below other issues, like economiy and security. Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa is a story of injustice and paradox. Injustice because while the region has contributed a mere 3 % of total global CO2 emissions over the past century and a half, it will be severely impacted by its effects. Paradoxical because although the alarm was raised already several decades ago that the region is at risk from the fallout of climate change, public awareness and policy responses have been even slower to emerge than elsewhere.

Assisting the Arab world in meeting the challenges posed by climate change will be a matter of strategic importance for Europe: not only because unmanaged risks will produce violent conflict and waves of migration, but also because other geopolitical players are beginning to exploit the vulnerabilities of the region for their own purposes.