Armed-conflict risks enhanced by climate-related disasters in ethnically fractionalized countries

This research paper discusses how climate-related disaster occurrences enhance armed-conflict outbreak risk in ethnically fractionalized countries. Using event coincidence analysis, the researchers test the hypothesis based on data on armed conflict outbreaks and climate-related natural disasters for the period 1980–2010.

The authors found a coincidence rate of 9% regarding armed conflict outbreak and disaster occurrence events such as heat waves or droughts. The analysis revealed that, during the period in question, about 23% of conflict outbreaks in ethnically highly fractionalized countries robustly coincided with climatic calamities.

The disruptive nature of these events seems to play out in ethnically fractionalized societies in a particularly tragic way. This observation has important implications for future security policies as several of the world’s most conflict-prone regions are both exceptionally vulnerable to anthropogenic climate change and characterized by deep ethnic divides.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113(33): 9216-9221. Document shared online through the PNAS open access option.