Assessing the myth of disaster risk reduction in the wake of catastrophic floods

The study examines if flood disasters in 23 of the world’s most flood-prone countries to assess whether catastrophic floods, those milestone events with the highest fatalities, have been followed by decreasing mortality in subsequent floods.

Disruptive disasters are often depicted as seminal events that provide opportunities for ambitious risk reduction actions, yet scholars debate whether disasters actually play this role. While some studies find that fatal disasters, including major floods, enhance risk mitigation, especially if exposing flaws in pre-existing policies and sparking debates about causes and consequences, other studies found negligible or no effects. Others yet have pointed to the risk that certain disasters may, in reality, increase vulnerability through maladaptive responses.

In this study it is assessed whether milestone flood disasters – events whose death toll exceeds historical country averages – incentivize countries to take actions that reduce future flood fatalities. The study includes riverine, coastal, ice jam, and flash floods.