Assessing surface water flood risk and management strategies under future climate change: an agent-based model approach

This working paper presents an Agent Based Model (ABM), applied to a London case study of surface water flood risk, designed to assess the interplay between different adaptation options; how risk reduction could be achieved by home owners and government; and the role of flood insurance and the recently launched flood insurance pool, Flood Re, in the context of climate change. The ABM is novel in its coverage of different combinations of flood risk management options, insurance, and Flood Re, and its ability to model changing behaviour, decision making, surface water flood events, and surface water flood risk in a dynamic manner. The findings are highly relevant for the ongoing regulatory and political approval process for Flood Re as well as the wider flood risk management discussion in the UK.