Assessment of contributing factors of the May 2021 disasters in Tajikistan: A forensic study under the strengthening critical infrastructure against natural hazards project

This document reports the findings of a forensic assessment of the flood, mudflow, and mass movement disasters which struck Tajikistan in May 2021. The assessment used satellite information, global hydrological and topographic data, ground station data, and model results.

The paper finds that most of the 2021 floods and mudflows originated in existing high-risk river channels, with damages enhanced by increased human exposure. Overgrazing and deforestation are likely to have exacerbated the disasters. While the rainfall events were extreme, they will become more frequent due to climate change. In addition, a shift of snowmelt by up to one month earlier in the year could increase the likelihood that extreme rainfall coincides with high soil moisture and base flows, further increasing the future risks of such events. Droughts during the summer months will likely increase, as will the risks from glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs).