Attribution of summer 2022 extreme wildfire season in Southwest France to anthropogenic climate change

This study is assessing the role of anthropogenic climate change in the occurrence of prolonged extreme climate conditions favourable for the development of summer 2022 Landes wildfires. Summer 2022 was exceptionally hot and dry in Europe and especially in Southwest France, where the most important wildfires since 1949 had serious environmental and socio-economic impacts.

The authors find that an index combining soil moisture integrated over 6 months and temperature and vapour pressure deficit integrated over 3 months is correlated with large burnt areas. Using the index developed, they estimate that anthropogenic climate change made climate conditions propitious for wildfire development, such as the ones of July 2022, two times more likely, with a return period of 13 years in the current climate.