Beyond the forecast: Knowledge gaps to anticipate disasters in armed conflict areas with high forced displacement

This paper answers the question: what is the state of knowledge of early warning and early action (EWEA) for climate hazards in countries affected by armed conflict and high levels of forced displacement? The review reveals a heavy concentration of research on physical science elements like hazard analysis and forecasting, which account for over 75% of the literature.

In contrast, topics such as early action planning, communication of warnings, and financing systems are significantly under-researched. Conflict dynamics are barely integrated into EWEA studies—only 3.4% of papers mention them. Most research is concentrated in more stable conflict-affected countries like Ethiopia, Pakistan, and Nigeria, while high-intensity conflict areas such as Yemen, South Sudan, and Syria remain largely understudied. The study calls for multidisciplinary, conflict-sensitive research to improve disaster preparedness and ensure that at-risk populations in conflict zones are not left behind.