Building emergency planning scenarios for viral pandemics

Like all large disasters, Covid-19 involves cascading consequences. These need to be factored into future emergency planning scenarios. The purpose of this report is to provide a systematic if incomplete, record of the issues connected with the Covid-19 pandemic in order to improve the basis for future emergency planning. They are discussed in the following chapters:

1. Emergency coordination and response (p. 4)
2. Health and medical (p. 12)
3. Critical infrastructure and information technology (p. 17)
4. Economics (p. 22)
5. Social and psychological (p. 25)
6. Justice and crime (p. 30)
7. Education and culture (p. 32)
8. Recovery (p. 35)

This report contends that the planning scenario for viral pandemics is complex but fully capable of being formulated, although it will contain a large measure of uncertainty. It is concluded that an emergency plan is only as good as its implementation.  In the event of a pandemic, the uncertainty in the behaviour of the disease means that plans must be flexible to start with and then adapted to circumstances as these evolve. This underlines the role of planning as a process rather than an end.