Climate immobility traps: A household-level test

The study aims to clarify how climate shocks influence migration decisions among farm households facing climate risks by examining diverse mobility outcomes. Using longitudinal survey data from Nigeria and a causal machine learning approach, it seeks to link economic migration theories with poverty trap concepts to better understand adaptive responses.

The results show that pre-shock asset levels, in situ adaptive capacity, and cumulative shock exposure drive not just the magnitude but also the sign of the impact of agriculture-relevant weather anomalies on the mobility outcomes of farming households.  While local adaptation acts as a substitute for migration, the roles played by wealth constraints and repeated shock exposure suggest the presence of climate-induced immobility traps.