Climate impact induced crisis in Europe: An exploration of scenarios

The report provides orientation regarding potential future developments by examining six scenarios of climate impacts that can trigger social, political, economic or financial crises in Europe in the next decade. The scenarios have been identified through literature review and interviews with domain experts

PlanAdapt, in collaboration with Global Climate Forum, conducted a study on near term climate impacts with significant economic risks for the European economy. The relevance of climate impacts for Europe was explored through the development of qualitative future scenarios. Climate-impact induced crises in Europe may be triggered by climate impacts occurring either within or beyond Europe and can be triggered by both direct physical impacts on people or physical assets and indirect impacts. Indirect impacts refer to all impacts that are not direct physical impacts and can be categorised as supply chain interdependencies and financial system interdependencies.They may be beyond the range of typical experience. 

• Crisis Scenario 1: Major flooding in central and western Europe
• Crisis Scenario 2: Drought in southern Europe
• Crisis Scenario 3: European electricity grid vulnerability
• Crisis Scenario 4: US coastal real estate market collapse
• Crisis Scenario 5: Global agricultural supply chain collapse
• Crisis Scenario 6: Large-scale migration due to conflicts in Africa