Climate impacts in Europe: Final report of the JRC PESETA III project

This study assesses how climate change could affect Europe in eleven impact areas.

Under a high warming scenario, several climate impacts show a clear geographical north-south divide. Most of the welfare losses, assessed for six impact areas, would be greatly reduced under a 2ᵒC scenario.

The assessment is based on a consistent methodological framework that integrates climate and socio-economic projections, impact models and economic analysis. The following climate impact categories have been considered in the study: coastal floods, river floods, droughts, agriculture, energy, transport, water resources, habitat loss, forest fires, labour productivity, and mortality due to heat. In general, in what follows the climate impact results have not taken into account planned or public adaptation, unless otherwise stated.  

Main findings of the assessment include a broad range of environmental and socio-economic impacts across Europe such as reduction in labour productivity and agricultural productivity, reduced water availability, the development of a north-south divide with regards to climate change impact severity, and an overall EU welfare loss of around 1.9% of GDP.