Climate risk country profile: Bhutan

This profile is intended to serve as a public good to facilitate upstream country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends and projected changes in key climate parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs, adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions. The Kingdom of Bhutan (Bhutan) is a landlocked country with an area of 38,394 km2 located in South Asia and is bordered by China and India. The Government of Bhutan has gained international attention for its policies to address climate change. Bhutan has also been a leader in its forest management and carbon sequestration efforts from its forests have helped the country maintain its carbon negative status. Identified in the country’s Nationally Determined Contribution (2016), the country’s vulnerability to the impacts of climate change are primarily the fragile mountainous environment and dependence on agriculture and hydropower generation for economic development.

Key messages include: 

• While data are limited, historical records indicate an increase in annual temperatures of just under 1°C over the 20th century in Bhutan, with daily minimum temperatures increasing at a greater pace than daily maximum temperatures.
• Climate models project a significant increase in the likelihood of heatwaves and droughts. These are likely to impact more severely on communities in Bhutan’s lowlands.
• Agriculture is highly vulnerable to climatic conditions due to its dependence on monsoon rains and short growing periods. This is accentuated by the structure of agricultural production and concentration of agricultural activity in vulnerable areas. Around 30% of agricultural production takes place on slopes that are vulnerable to landslides and soil erosion.
• Despite recent successes in poverty reduction, the likelihood that the strongest impacts of climate change will fall on the communities with the least capacity to adapt, means there is a high risk of people falling back into poverty and a widening inequality gap.