Climate risk country profile: Kazakhstan

This profile is intended to serve as public goods to facilitate upstream country diagnostics, policy dialogue, and strategic planning by providing comprehensive overviews of trends and projected changes in key climate parameters, sector-specific implications, relevant policies and programs, adaptation priorities and opportunities for further actions. The Republic of Kazakhstan is a landlocked country and is the ninth largest country in the world by area. Kazakhstan’s economy is dominated by a large minerals sector. In 2016, Kazakhstan submitted its First Nationally Determined Contribution to the UNFCCC, which commits the country to a 15% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 (relative to 1990 levels). 

This profile provides key messages on the climate risk faced by Kazakhstan, including: 

• Temperatures in Kazakhstan are projected to rise at a faster rate than the global average and faster than most other Asian nations, with potential warming of 5.3°C by the 2090s, compared with the 1986–2005 baseline under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5).
• Severe droughts are expected to occur more frequently under all but the lowest emissions pathway. Increased drought risk is likely to contribute to land degradation, desertification, and associated issues such as dust storms.
• Grain yield losses due to climate change in Kazakhstan are expected to have serious implications for global food security as the nation represents one of the world’s largest exporters.