Climate risk country profile: Papua New Guinea

This document aims to succinctly summarize the climate risks faced by Papua New Guinea (PNG). This includes rapid onset and long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities, livelihoods and economies, many of which are already underway. This is a high-level synthesis of existing research and analyses, focusing on the geographic domain of PNG, therefore potentially excluding some international influences and localized impacts. This document is primarily meant for WBG staff to inform their climate actions. The document also aims to direct the reader to many useful sources of secondary data and research.

Some of the key messages of this paper include:

• Projections suggest warming in Papua New Guinea (PNG) could be similar to, or very slightly below, the global average. Warming of around 3.6°C is projected by the 2090s, compared to the 1986–2005 baseline under the highest emissions pathway (RCP8.5).
• Minimum and maximum temperatures are expected to rise considerably faster than average temperatures, potentially amplifying risks to human health and ecosystems.
• Understanding of climate-related risks in PNG is hindered both by the lack of study of localized historical and future climate changes, and by the limited data on many aspects of social vulnerability.
• Available evidence suggests that without significant global mitigation and local adaptation action PNG’s communities face very significant increases in disaster risk as a result of climate change. These risks are likely to disproportionately burden the poorest communities.