Climate risk country profile: Vietnam

This document aims to succinctly summarize the climate risks faced by Vietnam. This includes rapid onset and long-term changes in key climate parameters, as well as impacts of these changes on communities, livelihoods and economies, many of which are already underway. This is a high-level synthesis of existing research and analyses, focusing on the geographic domain of Vietnam, therefore potentially excluding some international influences and localized impacts.

The core data presented is sourced from the database sitting behind the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Knowledge Portal (CCKP), incorporating climate projections from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). This document is primarily meant for WBG and ADB staff to inform their climate actions and to direct them to many useful sources of secondary data and research. 

Find here the key messages of the report: 

• Projected temperature increases in Vietnam are similar to the global average, ranging between 1.0 and 3.4°C by 2080–2099 when compared with the 1986–2005 baseline. 
• Rises in annual maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to be stronger than the rise in average temperature, likely amplifying the impacts on human health, livelihoods, and ecosystems.
• There is considerable uncertainty around future precipitation trends and the intensity of extreme events, in particular due to the current generation of climate models’ poor performance simulating El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO).
• Vietnam’s low-lying coastal and river delta regions have very high vulnerability to rising sea-levels. Depending on the emissions pathway 6–12 million people will potentially be affected by coastal flooding by 2070–2100 without effective adaptation action.
• Climate change is likely to increase the population affected by fluvial flooding, projected to be in the range of 3–9 million people by 2035–2044 depending on the emissions pathway.
• Losses of agricultural productivity are projected for key food and cash crops, multiple drivers have been proposed, including saline intrusion and shifts in the viable geographical range of plant species.
• As temperatures rise the increase in heat stress on the Vietnamese population will lead to negative health outcomes, particularly for poorer communities and outdoor laborers.
• Vietnam faces potentially significant social and economic impacts across multiple regions and sectors. Without effective adaptation and disaster risk reduction efforts multidimensional poverty and inequality are likely to increase