Climate vulnerability and security in the Euphrates-Tigris Basin

The paper builds on CASCADES research which examines the impacts of climate change on trade, investments, sustainable development and human security in the European neighbourhood, with a view to inform European policies and improve interregional cooperation. The scenarios presented in this paper have been co-developed with 30 experts from the region, representing the fields of climate change adaptation, natural resource management, conflict prevention, and other relevant areas, to allow for a multidisciplinary perspective on major challenges and possible solutions. 

The three scenarios presented in this paper outline three different trajectories for the Euphrates-Tigris basin, each one with its specific vulnerabilities to climate change and opportunities for resilience and adaptation. The scenarios aim to stimulate a conversation on future challenges and ways to prepare for them.  Ultimately, it comes down to basin countries’ ability to build cohesive societies and maintain productive relations among each other; to show solidarity with those most severely affected by climate change; and to provide for healthy conditions for societies, ecosystems, and markets to thrive. Due to their proximity and ties to the region, European partners have a unique opportunity to support them in this endeavour. The future of the basin is yet to be determined.