The consequences of relocating in response to drought: human mobility and conflict in contemporary Kenya

As global temperatures rise, drought-induced human relocation is expected to increase. Using original national survey data from Kenya, this study investigates whether people who report relocating due to drought are more likely to be victims of violence than people who do not move. It also examines whether this migrant sample supports the use of violence at higher levels than the general population, conditional on their experiences. It measures the duration of relocation (temporary versus permanent) as well as the characteristics of the arrival area, including co-ethnic demographics.

Controlling for many individual-level and contextual variables, this study finds that those who have relocated are consistently more likely to be victims of violence than those who have not. It also finds that those who relocated temporarily support the use of violence at higher levels than the general population if and only if they are themselves victims of violence. Vulnerable migrant populations may be subject to violence as observational aggregate studies suggest, but they are not likely to be the sources of violence unless victimized first.