The cost of inaction: Calculating climate change-related loss and damage from extreme weather in Small Island Developing States

Small Island Developing States (SIDS) have had considerable success in getting climate-induced loss and damage on to the international policy agenda, as evidenced by the decision at COP27 to create a specific Loss and Damage Fund. However, the hard task of harnessing adequate support to address loss and damage hinges on being able to calculate what constitutes ‘loss’ and ‘damage’, both retrospectively and prospectively. This paper contributes to that conversation. It presents estimates of the impacts of extreme weather events due to climate change in SIDS over the past 23 years and projections of expected loss and damage by the year 2050.

The paper also offers recommendations to help inform the development of adequate financial mechanisms, including the Loss and Damage Fund. Firstly, mechanisms to address loss and damage need to focus on loss and damage under a 2°C+ scenario. Secondly, there needs to be a clearer articulation, and calculation, of the indirect costs of climate change, which could be significant. And finally, data gaps need to be filled as a matter of urgency, including through more attribution studies in SIDS and other highly vulnerable countries.