Current and projected regional economic impacts of heatwaves in Europe

This study analyses the present and future economic damages due to reduced labour productivity caused by extreme heat in Europe. For the analysis of current impacts, the study focused on heatwaves occurring in four recent anomalously hot years (2003, 2010, 2015, and 2018) and compared the findings to the historical period 1981–2010. Excessive heat has been shown to be an important negative externality with an effect on the productivity of workers. Quantifying the economic impact of these externalities with spatially resolved socioeconomic data and models is key to combat their effect, acting as the necessary input for the design of evidence-based adaptation plans and occupational health policies.

The study finds that in the selected years, the total estimated damages attributed to heatwaves amounted to 0.3–0.5% of European gross domestic product (GDP). However, the identified losses were largely heterogeneous across space, consistently showing GDP impacts beyond 1% in more vulnerable regions. Future projections indicate that by 2060 impacts might increase in Europe by a factor of almost five compared to the historical period 1981–2010 if no further mitigation or adaptation actions are taken, suggesting the presence of more pronounced effects in the regions where these damages are already acute.