Developing an impact library for forecasting surface water flood risk

Few early warning systems quantitatively estimate the risk and impacts of surface water flooding. Improvements in computational processing capability, availability of new datasets and developments in forecasting models means that the forecasting information currently being supplied by the Flood Forecasting Centre can be improved upon through the application of a timely, impact‐based model.

This article presents a novel approach to collating receptor datasets into a pre‐calculated Impact Library for use in a Hazard Impact Model (HIM) that will operate using real‐time probabilistic rainfall and surface runoff forecasts for England and Wales. The HIM provides an approach suitable for modelling flood impacts. Initial results are presented for a case study covering the 2012 floods in the North East of England.