Disaster risk profile: Madagascar

This disaster risk profile for Madagascar seeks to provide a basis for the future implementation of disaster risk financing through the improved understanding of disaster risks. The risk modelling undertaken focused on three perils: tropical cyclones, floods and earthquakes. In addition, as part of the earthquake risk assessment, tsunami risk zones were also identified. The hazard and exposure data, as well as the results of the risk analysis, has been collated and stored on open data geospatial platforms in Madagascar and made available to a wide range of end-users. 

This analysis suggests that on average, Madagascar experiences over US$100 in combined direct losses from earthquake, floods, and tropical cyclones each year. However, a specific event such as severe tropical cyclone can produce significantly larger losses. For example, results suggest that a 100-year return period tropical cyclone event would produce direct losses of $810 million and require approximately $190 million in emergency costs. 

Tropical cyclones are by far the most significant risk in this study, causing approximately 85 percent of the annual average loss from all three perils. Flooding is the next largest risk, accounting for nearly 13 percent.

In this analysis, the residential sector experiences nearly 75 percent of the combined losses, the commercial sector over 9 percent, and the public sector more than 8 percent. The highest loss takes place in the Toamaslna region, which experiences nearly 30 percent of the average annual losses from the three perils combined, In addition to the direct losses, an annual average of nearly $23 million is estimated for emergency costs.