El Niño 2015/2016: impact outlook and policy implications
Science and Policy Knowledge Series, Advisory Note, December 2015
This publication notes that El Niño will likely continue to cause significant drought during the period from November 2015 to April 2016, spanning southern parts of Sumatra, Java and eastern parts of Indonesia, central and southern parts of the Philippines and Timor-Leste. Most parts of Mongolia could experience a severe winter associated drought (or dzud) leading to inadequate pasture or fodder for the livestock. Many Pacific island countries are likely to experience drought as well as intermittent cyclones.
Furthermore, Sri Lanka and southern India could continue to experience higher than normal rainfall as per the winter SASCOF outlook issued by WMO and this could cause further flooding, particularly urban flooding, in certain locations. In India, severe floods have already been reported in several parts of Tamil Nadu during November and December 2015, inundating most areas of Chennai.
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