Ensembles of climate simulations to anticipate worst case heatwaves during the Paris 2024 Olympics

In this paper, researchers search for the most extreme heatwaves in Ile-de-France that are physically plausible, under climate change scenarios, for the decades around 2024. The Summer Olympic Games in 2024 will take place during the apex of the temperature seasonal cycle in the Paris Area. The mid-latitudes of the Northern hemisphere have witnessed a few intense heatwaves since the 2003 event. Those heatwaves have had environmental and health impacts, which often came as surprises. 

The study finds that the 2003 record can be exceeded by more than 4 °C in Ile-de-France before 2050, with a combination of prevailing anticyclonic conditions and cut-off lows. This study intends to raise awareness of those unprecedented events, against which societies are ill-prepared, in spite of adaptation measures designed from previous events. Those results could be extended to other areas of the world.