Evaluating the impacts of climate change and land-use change on future droughts in northeast Thailand

This study compares the projected individual and combined impacts of climate change (CC) and land-use change (LUC) on future droughts (2021–2050), with respect to baseline (1981–2010) in one of the major tributaries of the Mekong River. LUC impacts on hydrological droughts are minimal compared to CC, with the latter expected to shorten the recurrence interval of a 20-year return period event to every 14 years. The impacts of climate change (CC) on droughts are well documented, but the effects of land-use change are poorly understood.

This publication provides the following takeaways:

• ‘Once in a Decade’ agricultural droughts will be 40% (35%) longer and 88% (87%) more severe under the CC (LUC) scenario;
• Under both stressors, the events occurring every 20 years will be twice as frequent;
• Results highlight the intensification of future droughts and the urgency for actions to mitigate/adapt to climate change and manage land use.